Research On Agricultural Reinsurance Model And Prcing

Agriculture is the foundation of the country and the key factor to maintain the stability of the country.With the development of science and technology,the importance of the tertiary industry is increasing,but the importance of the primary industry should not be ignored.In recent years,China's large and small disasters are constantly involved in the issue of basic livelihood security.As a country with a large population,agriculture is of great importance to our country.The vast territory of our country means that the risks faced by our agricultural production are complex and diverse.Since ancient times,our country has been plagued by natural disasters.At the same time,with the development of modernization,there are many problems in the process of agricultural production and management,which need to be solved.Therefore,the guarantee of agricultural production needs to be explored constantly,synchronized with the times,and constantly looking for a better solution to agricultural safety.Agricultural insurance emerges as the times require.The risk dispersion of insurance can share the loss of farmers to a great extent,and commercial management can also reduce the burden of national finance to a greater extent.But the agricultural risk is too concentrated,and the single loss is easy to exceed the scope that the insurance company can bear.At the same time,due to the complexity and diversity of the risks faced by our agriculture,the economic loss accumulated many times may also exceed the compensation ability of the insurance company.Many academic studies and practices in developed countries have proved that the effective development of agricultural insurance and gradually support the stability and upgrading of the agricultural industry requires the support of national policies and diversified means of financial risk dispersion.Agricultural reinsurance isan effective financial tool to disperse the risks of agricultural insurance.At the moment of the initial development of agricultural insurance in China,agricultural reinsurance can play an irreplaceable role to ensure the orderly promotion of agricultural insurance.From 2013 to 2017,the total sown area of crops in China was basically maintained at about 160000 hectares,with an annual average sown area of1662727000 hectares and an average affected area of 241772000 hectares,accounting for 14.5% of the total sown area;while the average dead area was 27793000 hectares,accounting for 1.7% of the total sown area;the annual average direct economic loss reached 273152 million in five years Yuan.Nowadays,China's insurance depth,including the depth of agricultural insurance,is insufficient.The data from the Ministry of finance shows that by 2019,the depth of agricultural insurance(premium/ added value of the primary industry)in China is about 0.88%.China's insurance industry still needs to study more effective and innovative ways to promote the insurance market,and agricultural insurance also needs to improve the efficiency of agricultural security.With the practice of China's agricultural insurance for many years,various problems in the process of agricultural insurance operation have gradually exposed,adding many difficulties and obstacles to the development of agricultural insurance;as a supplementary means of agricultural insurance,agricultural reinsurance also needs the test of practice.In recent years,the business loss ratio of China's agricultural reinsurance as a whole has only increased but not decreased,and the reinsurance companies are facing the pressure of operation and repayment It also increases.Agricultural reinsurance companies need more efficient ways to disperse the risks from the insured farmers and the original insurance companies,to provide more practical and effective actuarial reinsurance model,and to optimize the agricultural risk dispersion scheme.From the perspective of agricultural reinsurance companies,the role of reinsurance is to disperse risks beyond the capacity of the original insurance companies.With the development of modernization,insurance companies and insurance products are increasing,and the difficulty of risk analysis and control isincreasing.The original insurance companies are facing increased risks,and the reinsurance companies will also be affected.The most important step of agricultural risk dispersion is insurance product design.If the model application is not reasonable,if the risk prediction is not accurate,it will affect the operation of the original insurance and reinsurance companies.Therefore,reinsurance companies need to participate in the development process of insurance products together,start from the source,and provide technical support for risk management and control in many ways,so as to effectively avoid the possible moral problems of the original insurance companies.Among them,the reasonable choice of agricultural reinsurance mode and the reasonable pricing of agricultural reinsurance are the premise of the development of agricultural reinsurance system,so this paper will mainly discuss the selection and pricing of agricultural reinsurance mode.This paper first summarizes the characteristics of agricultural risk and its unique catastrophe risk characteristics,analyzes the applicability of extreme value theory to measuring agricultural risk,uses extreme value theory to assess agricultural risk,and uses generalized Pareto distribution to fit the distribution of agricultural loss amount;then,under the condition of studying reinsurance model theory,compares the characteristics of each reinsurance model In view of the large risk of agricultural loss and the insufficient data of agricultural loss,in order to maximize the income of insurance companies under certain risk conditions,the agricultural reinsurance mode is selected as the premium reinsurance in non proportional reinsurance;This paper focuses on the selection of agricultural reinsurance pricing methods and the establishment of agricultural reinsurance model.The Pareto pricing method is used to determine the premium rate of agricultural reinsurance.Considering the thick tail characteristics of agricultural losses,the generalized Pareto distribution is introduced into Pareto pricing method to fit the loss distribution in order to establish a more accurate model.Finally,this paper selects the data of agricultural loss amount in31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2017 for calculation and analysis,and estimates the specific parameters and fits the distribution after the initial estimation of the threshold value by means of charts and other methods;at the same time,this data isused for the distribution of loss times to finally determine the pure premium of agricultural reinsurance.This paper covers the whole process of agricultural reinsurance rate determination.Through the construction and empirical analysis of agricultural reinsurance model,it enriches the pricing theory of agricultural reinsurance,hoping to provide some ideas for the relevant research of agricultural reinsurance.