| According to the international definition of an aging society,the proportion of the population over60 years of age to the total population reached 10%,or the proportion of the population over 65 years of age reached 7% of the total population,that is,into the aging society,China has entered the aging society in2000.With the increasing number of elderly people,the topic of old-age care has attracted more and more attention from the community.China's basic old-age insurance financing to implement the system of integration of accounts,aimed at avoiding the full fund system may be exposed to inflation risk and pay-as-you-go system may be the risk of aging population.However,in the actual operation of China's pension account long-term deficit.Pensions are about people's livelihood,but they can't afford to make ends meet,and they have become a very serious problem,and many scholars have devoted themselves to studying their causes and finding solutions.The 6th national census in 2010 showed that life expectancy in China was 74.83 years,an increase of 3.43 years over 2000,and with the improvement of living standards in recent years,the development of medical technology,coupled with the strengthening of people's awareness of health,life expectancy will undoubtedly increase again,which is undoubtedly a good thing for society as a whole,but for pension insurance,the increase in life expectancy is not a small risk.Because in the actuarial valuation of pensions,the age-specific mortality rate is an indispensable actuarial data.When people's mortality rate decreases,the revenue and expenditure of actuarial valuation based on the original mortality rate will not be consistent with the actual.Will be greater,that is,the risk of longevity,will bring great trouble to pension management.The life table used by the actuarial of China's life insurance industry in China is the third life table to be launched on January 1,2017,using data from 2010 to 2013,and another decade is coming,with the gap between the actual average life expectancy and the expected average life expectancy in the life table.Clearly,the risk of longevity is inevitable.First,this paper quantifies the risk of longevity through the Lee-Carter model,uses empirical data on age-specific gender mortality to predict the future mortality of the population by model,and here the actual mortality data used are called mortality without regard to longevity risk,and future mortality data for the predicted results as mortality that takes into account longevity risk.The risk of longevity was quantified using two sets of different mortality data,indicating the existence of longevity risk.Secondly,this paper introduces the actuarial model of two kinds of old-age insurance,which is the actuarial model of the year and the individual long-term actuarial model,and explains the actuarial process of pension insurance from two different angles.The year-in-year actuarial model refers to the model of the income and pension expenditure spending received by the state for all persons during the year,reflecting the pension income and expenditure during the year.Among them,the income of the old-age insurance premium is equal to the number of workers of all ages participating in the old-age insurance by the corresponding wage multiplied by the sum of the contribution rate,the old-age insurance expenditure is equal to the sum of the retirement expenses and death expenses,equal to the number of retirement severity of all ages multiplied by the sum of the number of deaths of each age multiplied by the death benefit.The individual long-term actuarial model is a model that compares the actuarial present value of a person's contribution from the beginning of the contribution to the time he ceases to pay the premium and the actuarial present value of the pension received each year after the retirement of that person,reflecting the balance between pension contributions and the recipient of a typical person over a lifetime.Considering the system of integrating the total accountforitation for pensions in China,it is divided into co-ordinated accounts and individual accounts to carry out actuarial valuation,and the methods are consistent.Among them,the actuarial present value of pension income is equal to the corresponding wage multiplied by the contribution rate multiplied by the sum of the actuarial present value of the survival rate,and the actuarial present value of the expenditure of the pension fund is equal to the level of pension benefit received during the age of pension pension by the sum of the actuarial present value of the survival rate.After obtaining two sets of mortality that do not take into account longevity risk and take into account longevity risk,and after a detailed understanding of the two actuarial valuation models,we will use the data to carry out an actuarial valuation study using the data to compare the impact of longevity risk on the actuarial valuation of China's pension.The conclusion of the concrete research results is as follows: The difference between pension income and expenditure in China is negative,which reflects the phenomenon of the inreach of the pension fund itself in China.Furthermore,after considering the risk of longevity,the gap between income and expenditure of pension insurance fund widens,which shows that the phenomenon of non-deductible pension fund in China is aggravated by the existence of longevity risk,and the specific amount of the difference between income and expenditure is larger,indicating that the impact of longevity risk is significant,and the long-life risk should be paid attention to.In addition,with the passage of time,the value of the balance of pension fund gradually increases,indicating that the impact of longevity risk on the pension fund is gradually expanding over time,and once again shows that the long-lived risk should be paid enough attention.Finally,under the premise of analyzing the conclusion of the study,some ways to deal with the risk of longevity are put forward,and the current response to the risk of longevity in the academic circles can be summarized as the following aspects,the compilation of dynamic life tables,the improvement of mortality experience data,the improvement of mortality prediction methods,the extension of retirement age,Develop the capital market to expand the scope of insurance capital investment,reinsurance,risk hedging,mortality swap,longevity risk securitization and so on. |
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