| Although online P2 P lending platform has changed from a rapid development at the beginning to stable recession now,there are still a variety of risks,and the risks of the online P2 P lending industry have been changing rapidly,such as difficulties in cash withdrawal,platform failure,borrowers running away,delayed payment and other problems emerge in endlessly.As the new platform continue to enter the market,the investment risk is more and more get the attention of the majority of investors,especially in the period when the platform's rate of return has a large jump,the investors bear more and more investment pressure and risk,If the investors want to obtain satisfactory investment return in online P2 P lending market,they must predict investment return and judge the investment risk in advance.From the perspective of investors,this paper discusses the investment risk from two main research directions that investors pay attention to: one is the basis of investment,the other is the timing of investment.The general contents of the article are as follows:First of all,this paper describes the historical development of domestic online P2 P lending platforms in three stages,namely the early stage of development,the stage of rapid expansion and the stage of recession and stability,and carries out a simple analysis of the changes in platform volume,platform number and between the lenders and borrowers.Starting from the operation mode of online P2 P lending platform and the operation process of third-party stakeholders,this paper summarizes the development status of domestic online P2 P lending platform,briefly describes the information intermediary mode,platform guarantee mode and third party guarantee mode,and explains the borrower business process,investor business process and platform business process.Finally,the sources of investment risk are sorted out and summarized,The risks from borrowers include information asymmetry and false loan information,etc.the risks from online P2 P lending platform include low access threshold,original intention of the establishment of the platform and poor operation of the platform,etc.Secondly,based on the theoretical analysis and research results of the literature at home and abroad,respectively from the four dimensions of the platform qualification,risk control ability,investment evaluation and platform transparency,this paper divides the investment risk influencing factors into four categories,and constructs 10 main variables that may affect the investment risk,which are registered capital,company type,senior management background,operation time,guarantee model,regulatory Association,degree of concern,user rating,public opinion of Internet users and information disclosure.According to the data provided by home of Internet loan and Tianyan of Internet loan,the data of 58 problem platforms and 142 compliance operation platforms were sorted out and classified.The binary Logistic model was used to explore the influencing factors of investment risk.it is concluded that the main influencing factors of the investment risk are protect mode,information disclosure,and user ratings,The influencing coefficients of the three factors are 0.798,0.885 and 0.746 respectively,the greater the influence coefficient,the greater the impact on the investment risk.Then,a risk prediction model based on the monthly rate of return on investment index of online P2 P lending platform is constructed.According to the industry data collected by home of online lending and Tianyan of online lending,the time period of the monthly reference return data is from January 2015 to October 2019.Taking the 58 months online P2 P lending platform's monthly reference return data as sample data,using the grey prediction model to predict the monthly reference return data of each month,on the basis of the prediction results,using the Markov prediction model and adopt the mean standard deviation classification method,according to data from small to large,could be divided the prediction residual into five states,representing extremely underestimated and more underestimated,more accurate,more overestimated and extremely overestimated five state types,and take the monthly reference return date from November 2019 to December 2019 as the test data.Verify the accuracy of the modified grey Markov model,and predict the reference return rate from January to April 2020.then calculate the maximum loss value VaR of the investment,and predict the VaR value from January to March 2020,give the loss risk for investors to reference.The results show that the residual state in November 2019 to December 2019 will be in the state E4,the prediction interval is(4.2363,10.12998),the mean value is 7.18314,which is relatively underestimated.Compared with the GM(1,1)prediction model,the relative error calculated by the grey Markov prediction model is smaller,which can better reflect the authenticity and reliability of the prediction.According to the sample data,the maximum loss value VaR of investment is obtained.At the confidence level of 95%,the actual failure rate of the model is equal to the estimated failure rate,which shows that the model basically covers the possible risks.Finally,combined with the empirical analysis of the favorable factors of platform investment and the prediction conclusion of the investment risk of each period,this paper explores the investment risk existing in the platform lending behavior and how to effectively identify the risk,determines the investment risk measurement index,gives the platform development direction that investors should pay attention to,as well as evaluates and selects the online P2 P lending platform,to provide theoretical basis for investors to avoid investment risks.And based on this,the paper proposes an efficient prediction model for online P2 P lending platform investment risk prediction,which can not only achieve the positive effect of risk early warning,but also provide a reference data base for investors' investment decision-making and fund management behavior,so that investors can make investment within their own risk range and get a satisfactory returns,to strengthen the protection of investors' rights and interests in online P2 P lending market.Both of them complement each other,providing a relatively favorable reference basis for investors to select the platform and choose the investment point,and providing reasonable suggestions for the sustainable and stable development of online P2 P lending industry. |
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