The Study On The Impact Of Income And Expenditure Uncertainty On Shanxi Urban Residents' Consumption

Consumption,as one of the troika driving the economy,is not only a "ballast stone" for stable economic operation,but also a "main engine" that unlocks the potential of domestic demand and stimulates economic growth.In recent years,Shanxi has always emphasized the key role of consumption in promoting economic transformation and development,and has proposed various effective measures to promote residents' consumption.However,the consumption of urban residents in Shanxi still has problems such as declining growth rate and insufficient motivation.To improve the consumption level of Shanxi urban residents and play the fundamental role of consumption in stabilizing growth,we must analyze the underlying reasons for the lack of motivation for urban residents in Shanxi.Shanxi is currently in an important period of economic transformation and development.The growth rate of urban residents' income is slowing down,the employment situation is severe,and the risk of unemployment is high.The future income of urban residents is facing great uncertainty.Imperfect market mechanisms and social security systems and excessively high costs of housing,medical and educational make urban residents still face greater expenditure uncertainty.The existence of income and expenditure uncertainty will undoubtedly affect residents' willingness to consume and their ability to consume.Therefore,clarifying the influence mechanism of income and expenditure uncertainty on residents' consumption,and putting forward specific policy recommendations based on the actual situation of Shanxi,is of practical significance to boost the consumption level of urban residents in Shanxi.This article focuses on the uncertainty of the income and expenditure of urban residents in Shanxi since the reform and opening up,especially the economic system reform,and explores the impact of uncertainty on the consumption level of urban residents in Shanxi.In terms of normative research,based on western classic consumption theories,it analyzes the influence mechanism of income and expenditure uncertainty on residents' consumption level.In empirical research,it analyzes the characteristics of changes in consumption levels and consumption structure of urban residents in Shanxi over the years.And sorts out the income and expenditure uncertainties faced by urban residents during the reform of Shanxi.The income and expenditure standard deviations calculated by income level grouping are used as indicators to measure uncertainty,and a state space model is constructed to dynamicallyanalyze the influence of income and expenditure uncertainty on the consumption of urban residents in Shanxi.Since the reform and opening up,the consumption level of urban residents in Shanxi has been greatly improved,and the consumption structure has been optimized.However,residents' consumption still face greater uncertainty in income and expenditure.In terms of income,the market-oriented reforms of the employment system have increased the risk of unemployment and increased employment pressure for urban residents.The reform of the income distribution system has made it difficult for urban residents to form stable expectations of income;in terms of expenditure,the market-oriented reform of the people's livelihood business such as education,medical,housing has increased the burden of residents' consumption expenditures.The sharp rise in the prices of these bulk consumer goods has increased the uncertainty of expenditures faced by residents.Under the condition of uncertainty,household consumption is a difficult choice between current consumption and precautionary savings after weighing short-term and long-term interest relationships under the constraint of income level,so the impact of income and expenditure uncertainty on residents' consumption are different in different periods and under different income conditions.Through quantitative research,it is found that disposable income is still the most important factor affecting the consumption expenditure of urban residents in Shanxi;income uncertainty will affect residents' consumer confidence and bring a significant restraining effect on the consumption of urban residents in Shanxi;Urban residents' consumption has a positive impact,indicating that Shanxi urban residents are more affected by the short-term impact of spending uncertainty,and increased consumer spending is the urgency of household expenditure.Finally,according to the actual situation of Shanxi urban residents,from the aspects of reducing income uncertainty,improving supporting systems for medical,education,and housing system reform,and improving the social security system,this article proposes policy recommendations that will help release consumption potential and optimize consumption structure.