| The operation of the stock market is a barometer of China's economy.The national economy can run fast and steadily on the basis of a stable and healthy capital market.In 2015,the stock market in China showed signs of liquidity exhaustion due to the cliff-like drop in stock prices,which is a kind of panic stampede phenomenon caused by severe liquidity shortage in economic operation.The drain of liquidity confuse the healthy growth of capital market and confuse the normal operation of financial market.In addition,a stock market crash caused by the drying up of market liquidity would have a negative impact on the real economy.A sharp drop in the stock market can deal a severe blow to investors' confidence,leading to a major loss in their willingness to spend,and ultimately a severe economic depression.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the formation mechanism and causes of the liquidity crisis in the stock market.From a perspective,it can provide the basis for the state to regulate the financial market and avoid the liquidity stampede in the market.On the other hand,it can also provide investment reference for investors and help market investors make better investment decisions and choose more valuable portfolios to avoid market liquidity risks and obtain expected investment returns.Based on the spiral model of market liquidity,this paper studies the causes and process of the liquidity stampede crisis in the stock market.This paper is mainly divided into the following three parts.The first part summarizes the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the factors affecting stock market liquidity,the causes of liquidity crisis and the impact of liquidity crisis on stock market operation.The second part firstly analyzes the characteristics of the current situation of the stock market liquidity stampede crisis,including the characteristics and risks of the stock market liquidity stampede crisis.Secondly,from the perspective of fire sale theory,competitive selling theory and liquidity spiral,the theoretical basis for analyzing the formation of liquidity stampede crisis was explored.Then,the actual financing situation of China's stock market at that time was simply analyzed,and the main types and characteristics of leveraged transactions inside and outside the market were briefly introduced.Operating mechanism in a different way to trade in the stock market,otc match resource utilization of warehouse system caused the stock market situation analysis of high leverage and to leverage financing broke in stock prices fall and the market liquidity dried up and precipice eventually trigger a liquidity crisis trample to form a series of chain effect,and other aspects has carried on the detailed analysis and explanation.The third part,using the granger causality test,VAR model,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition methods of how to leverage affect the stock market liquidity crisis trample has carried on the empirical test,the results show that deleveraging will have obvious effect on the stock market liquidity,in phase to leverage,liquidity crisis prices dropped bluff type trample.The conclusions and implications of this paper are as follows: excessive leveraged trading drives up asset prices to form bubbles;In the face of the deleveraging shock,leveraged traders are forced to sell assets at a reduced price,and when the price is not adjusted in place,there will be an important factor of liquidity stampede crisis.Therefore,the internal and external leverage ratio should be effectively limited and regulated.Improve the stock market trading mechanism,full disclosure of information,reduce transaction costs.Regulators should strengthen the risk supervision and screening of high leverage transactions in the market,correctly and rationally guide the investment motivation of participants in leveraged transactions,and vigorously develop mixed supervision with the deepening of cross-market correlation of financial products. |
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