Research On The Dynamic Adjustment Of Personal Pension Asset Allocation

With the aggravating aging problem,the investment in personal pension assets has become a concern of the people in recent years.It is necessary to implement asset allocation planning for pension assets when making personal pension investment.Asset allocation planning can be divided into three stages: determine the asset allocation baseline,dynamic adjust the asset allocation,and judge whether to adjust allocation baseline.In the implementation process,the biggest key confusion of individual pension investors is how to implement the dynamic adjustment in personal pension asset allocation.?A series of research of academia have shown that the personal pension asset allocation revolves around the issue of how to price assets,and has gone through three stages: modern portfolio theory,improvement of modern portfolio theory,and factor theory.At the same time,financial theory has also been continuously improved.The emergence of efficient market hypothesis,behavioral finance,and business cycle theory has divided the dynamic adjustment of asset allocation into asset allocation rebalancing strategies and tactical asset allocation strategy in terms of rebalancing investment and tactical investment.Through further empirical analysis,the author find that both of these dynamic adjustment strategies can make investment portfolios achieve excess returns,but there are just a few comparative analysis of these two strategies.Therefore,the research of this thesis is the dynamic adjustment of personal pension asset allocation on the basis of the theoretical and empirical levels.? At the level of theoretical research,the functions of strategic asset allocation and dynamic asset allocation are distinguished.The advantages and disadvantages of negative and positive asset allocation dynamic adjustment strategies are discussed.The implementation process of related asset allocation strategies is clarified.The theoretical research shows that the negative strategy is simple and practical and the positive strategies may yield higher returns.?At the level of empirical analysis,the sample data is divided into training samples and empirical samples.? Based on the training sample and the mean-variance model,the baseline of the personal pension asset allocation under the constraints is determined.Subsequently,the numerical simulation analysis and comparison of the positive asset allocation strategy and the negative asset allocation strategy were carried out based on the empirical samples.The result shows that both the negative strategy and the positive strategy can effectively improve the return of the investment portfolio.And the positive strategy has better returns and higher requirements for the professionalism of investors compared with the negative strategy.But the negative strategy is more suitable for the ordinary pension investors because of the simple operation and high possibility of higher returns.Finally,the thesis concludes recommendations for personal pension investment.First,investors should rationally plan the allocation of personal pension assets to avoid a single investment category.Next in importance,when implementing dynamic adjustment,people should choose the asset allocation rebalancing strategy or the positive asset allocation strategy according to the personal actual situation.Finally,focusing on monitoring the capital market in accordance with the chosen dynamic adjustment strategy.