Research On Financial Crisis Warning Model Based On Corporate Social Responsibility

From the beginning of 2015,China's economic growth has entered a new normal stage of development.The overall economic growth rate has continued to slow down.At the same time,due to the dynamic changes of the external environment and the strict constraints of government policies,the uncertainties in the survival and development of enterprises have increased,and the probability of financial crisis has increased significantly.This requires companies to learn to be prepared for danger,to conduct comprehensive risk management at all times,to avoid internal and external risks of enterprises,and to prevent enterprises from falling into financial crisis.Therefore,the company's financial crisis warning,as an important scope of corporate governance,plays a vital role in the company's stakeholders' behavioral decisions.Our country's research on the warning system of financial crisis began in the 1990 s and lagged far behind the theoretical research of Western countries.As a result,the research results in this aspect have basically borrowed from foreign research results and cannot fully adapt to the actual situation in China.The traditional research results are basically based on the static analysis of financial statements,ignoring the dynamic cumulative effect of financial crisis formation.At the same time,through the previous research,the traditional early warning model is based on the internal data of the enterprise.Few scholars study the root causes of financial crisis in enterprises based on social responsibility,so it is difficult to really help business managers to predict the financial crisis of enterprises.Based on this,this paper analyzes the impact of stakeholder behavior on corporate financial crisis from the perspective of social responsibility,introduces social responsibility into the financial crisis early warning analysis framework.It verifies the accuracy of the model through theoretical and empirical analysis,provides guidance on the theory and method of financial crisis warning.This paper first defines the two concepts of financial crisis and social responsibility,then describes the theoretical basis of the whole article,and builds a financial crisis transmission mechanism based on social responsibility.Based on the classification of social responsibility,it points out the impact of corporate responsibility of monetary,human and social capital stakeholders on corporate financial crisis.At the same time of qualitative analysis,the traditional basic indicators and social responsibility indicators are further constructed.The normality test and factor analysis are used to preprocess the data indicators.Finally,the traditional logistic regression model and neural network model and Support vector machine model are constructed.The results show that no matter which model is used,it is more comprehensive and objective to consider social responsibility in the prediction of financial crisis,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to guide managers and stakeholders in the judgment of corporate financial crisis.