Research On The Evaluation And Investment Decision Of Online Advertising Carry-over Effects

With the popularity of e-commerce and the development of information technology,online advertising has become the primary marketing means of many enterprises.Correspondingly,the rapid increase in advertising costs requires enterprises to implement more reasonable advertising and investment strategies.At the enterprise level,when launching online advertisements,enterprises mostly evaluate the immediate effects of advertisements in order to select channels.They seldom consider the carry-over effects,and do not make full use of the click-stream data of customers.When investing in online advertising,managers rely more on their own experience in the lack of scientific and effective tools.At the academic level,in the past studies on the evaluation of advertising effectiveness for optimization of advertising delivery,the multi-channel evaluation of the carry-over effect is only a few,and the research object is limited to daily sales products,without considering the performance of the carry-over effect of products with long sales cycle.In the past studies on the advertising investment modeling for optimization of advertising investment,scholars mostly focus on the improvement of the model and the discussion of the environment.For the advertising cost,they lack the measurement of the cost changes caused by the new charging rules and the carry-over effect of advertising.Therefore,considering the impact of advertising carry-over effect,this paper will study the optimization of online advertising delivery and investment.For the optimization of online advertising delivery,this paper mainly explores the effects of multi-channel online advertising channels under the influence of carry-over effects and the behavior state transition of users after entering the website from advertising channels.The two study issues follow the research paradigm of data modeling,including data acquisition,data preprocessing,feature extraction,model building,data validation,etc.In the study of multi-channel online advertising effect evaluation,after the preparation of the previous data,we first put forward the relevant hypothesis of channel advertising effect based on the past studies on the influencing factors of advertising effect and the actual situation of enterprises,and then incorporate the lag factors into the evaluation model of multi-channel online advertising effect to construct the model.After that,the long-term and short-term effects of each channel are calculated by the multivariate linear regression method based on the gradient descent.The results show that the immediate effect intensity of paid search channel is the highest,the carry-over effect duration of e-mail advertising channel is the longest,and the cumulative carry-over effect intensity of paid search channel is the highest.In the study of user behavior state transition,we construct user behavior state transition model under the influence of carry-over effect based on the purchase stage theories,and solves the state transition matrix of this state transition model through Markov theory,so as to explore the impact of the carry-over effects of various advertising channels on the user behavior stages.The results show that compared with message advertising channel,paid search channel and e-mail channel are more likely to promote consumers' access behavior in this channel,while in the purchase stage,mail advertising channel has better purchase conversion effect than paid search channel does.For the optimization of online advertising investment,this paper incorporates the new charging rules of online advertising and the influencing factors of its carry-over effects into the decision-making model of advertising investment.The model is deduced and solved through the classical Nash equilibrium game,so that the equilibrium value of the duopoly enterprises in two different market environments can be obtained.Finally,advertising investment strategies are discussed and relevant suggestions are given.It is found that in a duopoly market,the optimal offline and overall advertising investment of enterprises in competitive environment is always higher than that under cooperative conditions.The optimal profit in the two environments is related to many factors,including the influence coefficient of offline advertising on online advertising,carry-over effects,the erosion coefficient of advertising input of rival enterprises and the cost per thousand clicks of advertising.In addition,whether in the competitive or cooperative market environment,the optimal offline and overall advertising investment of enterprises are negatively correlated with the carry-over effect of enterprises' own advertising and the influence coefficient of offline traditional advertising on online advertising.It shows that when enterprises have advertising channels with high carry-over effect,they can relieve the pressure of advertising investment to a certain extent.