Credit Risk Analysis Of My Country's Rental Housing REITs

In recent years,with the real estate industry more and more strict supervision,China's real estate enterprises are also facing a great test of financing.REITs,a new type of financial instrument,enables low-liquid real estate to become highly liquid securities assets,invigorating assets and reducing asset risk.The newly emerging securitization of real estate assets provides an important financing method for real estate enterprises.In fact,financial instruments are produced by the development of credit relations,credit risk inevitably exists,so the research on credit risk of REITs can not be ignored.In this paper,the credit risk and evaluation method of the REITs project are studied by taking the "China Union Qianhai Open Source-Poly Real Estate Rental Housing Asset Support Special Program" as an example.Qualitative analysis,combined with quantitative analysis,first analyzes the credit quality of assets and the credit risk influencing factors of the project,and then uses KMV model,cash flow analysis and stress test to analyze the quantitative analysis of credit risk.Based on the modified KMV model,the credit risk of REITs of Poly rental housing is measured,the default distance and default rate of Poly 1 REITs project are calculated by using Matlab mathematical statistical software,and the results and deficiencies are analyzed.The risk of default on the asset-backed securities of the project is relatively small,but although the cash flow of the various periods during the life of the special plan can effectively cover the relevant fees and the principal and interest payment of the priority asset-backed securities,the interest coverage is close to 1 times,making it difficult to provide a large buffer.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions for the development of rental housing REITs based on the advantages and disadvantages of Polyreal REITs case: adopting the storage-type issuance mechanism to improve the efficiency of issuance.