| At present,the real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries of national economic development.In recent years,the development mode of high leverage and high debt ratio of the real estate industry makes the relationship between the real estate industry and the financial system more and more close.In 2017,the report on China's financial system stability assessment issued by the International Monetary Fund(IMF)pointed out that China's economy continues to grow and is undergoing a necessary economic transformation,and maintaining financial stability is crucial to China's overall economic transformation.The report also mentioned three important and interrelated issues in China's financial system: credit expansion and complexity,guarantee issues are closely related to the real estate industry.As an important factor affecting China's financial stability,paying attention to the reasonable fluctuation of real estate prices and maintaining the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry are of great significance to prevent financial risks and maintain financial stability so as to promote China's overall economic transformation.The high leverage and high debt ratio of the real estate industry make it have a high system risk,and the system risk affects the financial system through various channels.Firstly,this paper analyzes the mechanism of the impact of house price fluctuation on financial stability from the three aspects of macroeconomic,banking system and consumer behavior,and then based on the perspective of macroeconomic policy and market supply and demand,respectively,in 1998 in China-the current situation of house price fluctuation in 2018 was sorted out.Based on the research of many scholars at home and abroad on the financial stability system and the financial stability index evaluation system formulated by IMF,a comprehensive index system of financial stability was constructed to estimate and analyze the financial stability of China since 1998,and then the data of financial stability index and house price fluctuation were used to The empirical analysis shows that the impact of the price fluctuation of the real estate market on the financial stability is positive in the short term and negative in the long term.The continuous rise of the house price makes the financial risk rise not conducive to the stability of the financial system.Specifically,from the perspective of supply and demand,the rapid growth of the real estate investment supply is not conducive to the financial stability and the short-term investment The impact of demand on financial stability is also negative.In the long run,moderate growth of demand is conducive to financial stability,but blindly expanding investment demand will lead to financial crisis caused by inflation.Only when supply and demand are relatively balanced,price fluctuations will tend to be stable.In addition,from the perspective of the constructed financial stability index system,in recent years,the financial stability has been gradually improved and the financial system has been gradually improved.However,the results of some empirical control variables also show that the non-performing loan rate of banks will increase the financial risk and have a long-term negative impact on the financial stability.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen financial supervision and prevent systemic financial risks.According to the research results,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first,we should maintain the continuity,consistency and stability of the real estate industry policies in China,promote the supply side reform of real estate,strive to build a balance between supply and demand,restrain the investment demand to support the rigid and improved housing demand,promote the house price to return to rationality,and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market.Second,improve the real estate financial market system and expand the real estate financing channels.Third,reasonably guide public expectations and reduce irrational investment in real estate.Fourth,strengthen financial supervision,effectively curb the growth of non-performing rate of banks,and further improve the financial market supervision system. |
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