Research On The Factors Influencing The Default Of Corporate Bonds In Manufacturing Industry Based On Logit Model

Before 2014,China's bond market has created a record of "zero" default.With the "rigid payment" broken,bond default has become increasingly frequent.In 2018,a large number of companies fell into the wave of default,especially the bond default of manufacturing companies.However,most bond defaults are the result of risk accumulation.Finding out the influencing factors of bond defaults and taking targeted precautions against them can not only protect the long-term development of the company,but also protect the interests of investors.This paper first summarizes the situation of manufacturing bond default by year,then analyzes the characteristics of manufacturing bond default from different dimensions,and analyzes the internal and external influencing factors of manufacturing bond default combining with specific default events.It is found that the default of manufacturing bond is not only related to the external macroeconomic environment,but also related to the company's own governance level and financial situation and so on.Then it explains the basic concepts of corporate credit rating,corporate governance and bond maturity,and introduces incomplete contract theory,principal-agent theory,credit rating theory and broken window theory in detail.In the part of empirical analysis,the bonds with default and principal and interest payment in manufacturing industry during 2014-2019 are taken as the research objects,and four explanatory variables and eight control variables are selected from the macro to micro perspective.First,factor analysis is carried out on the original variables of corporate governance dimension to get the comprehensive score of corporate governance variables,then descriptive statistics is carried out on the overall sample data,differential statistics is carried out on default group and nondefault group,then VIF test and Spearman correlation analysis are carried out on each variable,and finally binary logistic regression and robustness test are carried out.The results show that the macroeconomic situation,corporate governance,profitability and company size are all at the level of 1% and have a significant negative correlation with the probability of bond default;the asset liability ratio is at the level of 1% and has a significant positive correlation with the probability of bond default;the bond maturity and bank credit are at the level of 5% and have a negative correlation with the probability of bond default;the liquidity level and R & D investment of the company are all at the level of 1% At the level of 10%,it has a negative correlation with the probability of bond default,while the company's credit rating,operating capacity and bond guarantee have no significant correlation with the probability of bond default.Finally,according to the conclusion of the empirical study,the paper puts forward some suggestions from the aspects of government supervision,issuing subject,intermediary and investors.