Research On Credit Risk Assessment Of Online Supply Chain Finance Of Commercial Banks

Since the reform and opening up 40 years ago,the number and development speed of China's small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises have changed with each passing day,gradually becoming the backbone of China's economic development.However,compared with large enterprises,small and medium-sized enterprises are small in scale and have low management level.Due to their lack of qualified collateral,small and medium-sized enterprises often find it difficult to obtain loans from commercial Banks.In order to solve this dilemma,the former shenzhen development bank was the first to launch supply chain financial products in 2006,which alleviated the urgent financing needs of smes.In recent years,with the rapid development of electronic information technology,supply chain finance initially has the characteristics of "on-line",and has expanded the innovative business of online supply chain finance.This business uses the network platform to improve the operational efficiency of the business,realize the online sharing of multi-party information and the online availability of financial services.However,due to the"online" characteristics of this business,the business operation process is more complex,and the network virtuality may lead to fraud,etc.,commercial Banks will face more complex risks and hidden dangers compared with traditional supply chain finance business,among which credit risk is the biggest risk for commercial Banks.Therefore,this paper will select an industry of online supply chain financial services,select qualified case data,and then gradually establish the credit risk evaluation index system and model of this industry.Firstly,domestic and foreign scholars' evaluation methods of supply chain finance and credit risk were sorted out through literature review.After the comparison and analysis of the evaluation methods,the principal component analysis and Logistic regression model were determined to be used as the research tools in this paper.Secondly,the definition of online supply chain finance,its development status,operation structure and new operation mode in China should be clarified.Thirdly,the primary index was selected and classified by the literature reading method,the index was checked by the literature word frequency statistics method,and the index was scored and supplemented by a questionnaire issued to the bank professionals.After these three steps,the final indicator system is obtained.In the empirical analysis,with 69 groups of data of agricultural and sideline products industry as the research object,using principal component analysis of SPSS 25.0,it is concluded that the main 9 principal component factors,using the Logistic regression model to calculate the financing the default probability of the enterprise,and with the industry of the official release interest-bearing debt ratio value contrast,model prediction accuracy are obtained.In addition,the empirical analysis of the data under the traditional model shows that the newly established index system has higher prediction accuracy.Then the significance test of the evaluation index and model is carried out,and the conclusion with practical significance is drawn.Finally,combined with the results of empirical research and analysis,reasonable Suggestions are put forward for online supply chain finance business to prevent the occurrence of credit risks.