Economic Policy Uncertainty,Managerial Overconfidence And Innovation Performance

Technological innovation is the first driving force leading the country's economic development,and it is also a key factor for enterprises to succeed in market competition.Under the background of economic globalization,fluctuations in domestic and foreign economic policies will change the market environment of enterprises and change the demand for innovation investment returns.Then it may affect the innovation investment decisions of enterprises.At present,China is in a period of economic transition.The economic growth rate has slowed down and industrial policies have been adjusted in a timely manner.And the macroeconomic environment faces greater uncertainty.Based on the above realistic background,many scholars have begun to pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic policies on corporate micro-behavior.However,there is less literature on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation,and no consistent conclusions have been reached.In addition,few studies consider the role of managers' irrational factors in corporate decision-making when exploring the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation.Therefore,it is of great significance to introduce behavioral finance theory into the impact mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on the innovation performance of enterprises.So,is economic policy uncertainty a risk or an opportunity for corporate innovation? Can managerial overconfidence play a role in hedging the risks of economic policy uncertainty? Clarifying these issues will help us understand our economic reality deeply.In the face of uncertain macroeconomic policy environment for companies,it has some enlightenment to explore ways and methods to effectively enhance technological innovation capabilities and accelerate transformation and upgrading.Based on this,this article mainly explores from two aspects of theoretical analysis and empirical test.In terms of theoretical analysis,we adopted real option theory,principal-agent theory,modern housekeeping theory and behavioral finance theory.Through these theories,the relationship between economic policy uncertainty,managerial overconfidence and innovation performance is explained in detail.In the case of empirical analysis,quantitative analysis was made using the listed Chinese manufacturing companies from 2010 to 2017.The empirical test examines the influence mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation performance and the moderating effect of managerial overconfidence.The research results show that the uncertainty of economic policy has a certain inhibitory effect on the innovation performance of enterprises.Managerial overconfidence reduces the restraint of economic policy uncertainty on innovation performance.The innovation performance of advanced manufacturing companies is more significantly affected by the economic policy uncertainty than traditional manufacturing companies.The impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation performance is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises,and the moderating role of managerial overconfidence is also more significant in non-state-owned enterprises.Financing constraints have played an intermediary role in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation performance.According to the above research conclusions,this article puts forward relevant suggestions from two aspects of government and enterprises.