The Influence Of Rational Expectation On Housing Price

The real estate industry is a pillar industry related to my country’s economic development and has been widely concerned by people.However,the rapid rise in housing prices has also brought great obstacles to the development of my country’s real estate market.Not only do consumers have great opinions on this,but the government also hopes to suppress this phenomenon.To some extent,the macro-control policies of the real estate market sometimes even exacerbated housing price volatility and housing price increases.There are many reasons for this result.In order to better study the reasons for the rise in housing prices,this article analyzes the impact of expectations on housing price fluctuations in depth,and makes meaningful suggestions for some of the chaos in my country’s real estate market.In the literature review section,this article first systematically sorted out the literature on expectations theory and housing price influencing factors by scholars at home and abroad,and then summarized the previous studies.In the past,domestic scholars have done a lot of research on the expected impact on housing prices.Most of the selected data are panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities or provincial panel data,and the methods mostly use generalized moment estimation(GMM)for empirical analysis.However,there are few studies on the formation path and transmission mechanism of anticipation.Therefore,in the theoretical part,the paper studies the formation of rational expectation from two aspects: direct and indirect,and explains the transmission mechanism of rational expectation.Participants’ expectations will gradually form the public’s overall expectations from individual expectations.Due to the existence of the herd effect,the economic behavior of market participants is often affected by the "leader".In the early stage of the formation of expectations,the expectations formed by different economic entities may also be different.These expectations will be in different economies through certain channels.It spreads between subjects and gradually forms a kind of overall public expectation with an expectation of absolute dominance,and this expectation is generally the expectation formed by the "leader".Under the influence of this general public expectation,market participants will tend to implement the same economic behavior and gradually have an impact on the development of the real estate market and the formulation of regulatory policies.In the empirical part,based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017,this paper conducted an empirical analysis of the three major regions of China’s east,middle and west through the system generalized moment estimation(SYS GMM)model.The analysis results show that consumers’ rational expectations The residential price of the country has a relatively significant impact.Consumers’ expectations of rising residential prices will lead to greater fluctuations in residential prices in the current period.Both the residential price in the previous period and the residential price in the next period will have a positive impact on the residential price in the current period.The impact of prices is greater than the consumer’s expectations for the next period of residential prices.For every 1% increase in the previous period’s residential price,the current period’s residential price will increase by 0.5%;for every 1% increase in the next period’s residential price,the current period’s residential price will increase by 0.24%.Consumers’ rational expectations have slightly different impacts in my country’s three major regions of eastern,central and western regions.Among them,rational expectations have the largest impact on residential prices in the eastern region,followed by the central region and the western region.