Analysis On The Causes Of Bond Default And The Early Warning Of Risk Of Yinyi Shares

In recent years,there have been many defaults in China's bond market,which has become the main keynote to break the rigid exchange,which is also the only way for the bond market to mature.Since the implementation of strong supervision and deleveraging policy in April 2018,the tightening of external financing environment has gradually exposed the potential credit risk of some enterprises,and the default risk accelerated in the second half of 2018.After October 2018,the government issued a series of loose policies,the financing environment began to be relaxed,and the default of state-owned enterprises was significantly reduced.At the same time,due to the poor transmission channel from broad currency to broad credit,and the frequent default of private enterprises,which hit the market confidence,the external financing environment of private enterprises in the first half of 2019 was still very severe(net financing amount of private enterprises was-18.8 billion yuan),and the private enterprise capital chain was still in place In a tense state,private enterprise default is still at a high level.It has become an urgent problem to analyze the influencing factors of debt default of private listed companies,how to avoid bond default of private listed companies,how to effectively identify,forewarn and prevent the risk of bond default of private enterprises,which has a certain practical significance to promote the stable development of China's bond market and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors.In this paper,the private listed company Yinyi stock bond default event is selected as the research object,leading to the discussion of the default risk of Yinyi stock bond.Following the basic steps of case analysis,the paper first introduces the case,and then describes and analyzes the basic introduction and default process of Yinyi shares in turn;then analyzes the reasons for the default of Yinyi bonds from the perspective of macro-economy,automobile and real estate industry,and the perspective of the company.After the strategic transformation of Yinyi shares in 2016,the real estate sales revenue plummeted,and the public The company's focus is basically on automobile manufacturing.However,in 2018,the overall auto market sales declined,which also affected the sales performance of auto parts.In 2018,thetwo companies acquired by Yinyi failed to fulfill their performance commitments,resulting in the company's performance plummeted in 2018,with a huge loss of 573 million,and the financial crisis intensified.Under the condition that the cash collection ability of the new business is general,and the debt structure is developing towards the direction of short-term,the company also carried out a large cash dividend distribution of up to 2.82 billion yuan in June 2018.Under the double pressure of tight cash flow and high pledge rate,the company's stock price drop induces the risk of forced closing of shares,which eventually causes the company's capital chain to break,and the "1.5 billion 01" fails to be paid as scheduled.After that,this paper uses Z-score Model and modified KMV model to analyze the company's risk early warning,and then selects Z-score Comparing the model measurement results,credit rating results and the modified KMV model measurement results,it can be seen that the credit rating given by rating agencies is seriously lagging behind.The empirical analysis of Z-score Model and the modified KMV model shows that the credit risk of Yinyi shares has risen sharply since the first quarter of 2018,and the possibility of default is very high,and the liquidity of Yinyi shares has been in short supply in the fourth quarter of 2018 Mouth then induces "1.5billion silver 01".The fact of breach of contract is consistent with each other and plays a role of early warning to a certain extent.Through empirical analysis and result comparison,we can help investors to make an effective risk early warning for the credit risk of Yinyi shares.At the same time,it is estimated that the credit risk level of Yinyi shares is still at a high level in the third quarter of 2019,and investors still need to pay careful attention to the change of the company's credit risk level.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions from three aspects: bond market supervision,Yinyi stock management and investor protection.