An analysis of plankton and other biogeochemical variables from Bedford Basin, NS, Canada using state space models

Abundance levels for various types of plankton and other biogeochemical variables were recorded between 1992 and 2006 in Bedford Basin, NS, Canada as part of an ongoing oceanographic monitoring program. Results are presented from time series analysis of these data. In particular, a cyclical state space model and a trend plus cycle state space model are developed and applied to these data. These models allows for the seasonal cycle of the abundance levels to be adaptive, thereby allowing for the examination of the interannual changes in the seasonal cycle (in terms of timing and level). Parameter estimation for these state space models is considered. Finally, a post-analysis, involving analysing trends over time, is conducted on the optimal state estimates and the interannual variability is quantified.