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Applications of nonlinear science and kinetic equations to the spread of epidemics

Posted on:2008-02-19Degree:Ph.DType:Thesis
University:The University of New MexicoCandidate:MacInnis, David RobertFull Text:PDF
GTID:2451390005980956Subject:Biology
Abstract/Summary:
The study of the spread of epidemics is currently growing into a successful subfield of a combination of nonlinear science and statistical mechanics. Topics studied in this field include kinetic and mean field levels of epidemiological models. This thesis consists of the analysis of such topics and specifically directed at the Hantavirus, West Nile virus, and the Bubonic Plague.; A successful reaction-diffusion equation approach developed recently by Abramson and Kenkre was able to describe spatiotemporal patterns of the Hantavirus model. From measurements of the parameters of their model it was found that the mice, the carriers of the infection, must be regarded as moving diffusively within attractive potentials representative of home ranges. Several attempts have been made to incorporate home ranges into their model. Two of these attempts are discussed within this thesis.; A model to explain the transmission of the West Nile virus within bird and mosquito populations was recently developed by Kenkre, Parmenter, Peixoto, and Sadasiv who showed how spatially resolved issues could be discussed but restricted their analysis to mean field considerations. This thesis extends that study by investigating spatial resolution of the infected populations. Traveling waves of the bird and mosquito populations are found in the West Nile context.; Infection control of various epidemics has become increasingly important to limit the potential force of infection into the human population. This thesis contains a quantitative attempt at a theory of such control (for the West Nile virus) via spraying of the mosquito population.; Mean field and kinetic level models are proposed in this thesis to describe the transmission of the Bubonic Plague which involves flea and mammal populations. The various populations are found to undergo a variety of bifurcations as well as hysteresis in their steady state regime. Spatially resolved analysis of the populations is also presented.
Keywords/Search Tags:Populations, West nile virus, Kinetic, Field
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