A spatial model of National Forest human-caused fire ignitions

Humans are responsible for most wildfires in the United States. This thesis examined the spatial relationships of fire ignition crimes on National Forests to other crimes and physical features. The distribution and location of fire ignition crime clusters on nine National Forests were determined using spatial pattern analysis. Results from the spatial pattern analysis indicate that fire ignition crimes were clustered. Spatial models were created that predicted the density of fire ignition crimes based on a set of crime and physical feature variables. Models suggest that crime variables are better predictors of fire ignition crime location than physical feature variables. Creation of generalized regional and national prediction models was found to be inappropriate. The results from this research can be used by Forest Service law enforcement during times of high fire risk to locate areas that are more prone to fire ignition crime.