When the majority becomes the minority: Changing demographics as social identity threat for whites and implications for prejudice and discrimination

U.S. Census Bureau projections indicate that by the year 2024 the number of people who identify as non-White (including Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, and mixed race individuals) is expected to reach 54%. That is, groups that are currently considered racial minorities will make up the numerical majority of the population. The numerical size of a group is related to its perceived power and social status. Thus, the projected demographic changes may signal to Whites that their power and social status are in jeopardy. The current research uses Social Identity Theory and Intergroup Threat Theory to explain why Whites may react negatively to the impending demographic changes and extend research on attitudinal reactions by investigating potential negative intergroup behavior responses. Results indicated that reading about demographic changes did not significantly increase Whites' feelings of threat, and that self-esteem did not mediate relationships between threat condition, experienced threat, and discriminatory backlash behaviors. Implications of these findings are discussed. However, to the extent that Whites did feel threatened they engaged in more discriminatory backlash, and specific appraisals of the type of threat that the changes represented were associated with discrete emotional experiences. Results are discussed with respect to proposed functions of intergroup emotion.