| This paper applies the concepts found within diversionary theory to a lower level of international conflict outside the United States. Specifically, it tests whether changes in Russian domestic political contention cause corresponding changes in diplomatic conflict with the United States.;Relying on both a quantitative model spanning 1990-2004 and a qualitative case study of the 2011 and 2012 political protests in Russia, the paper finds evidence for differing short and long-term effects of domestic contention. In the short term, diversionary tactics appear to be a cheap and effective way for a regime to manage domestic contention. However, in the long term, it appears that domestic politics has little impact on Russia-US relations, implying several strategies for the creation of US foreign policy. |
