Velvet revolutions: A comparative analysis of nonviolent action in revolution (Philippines, Nicaragua, Czechoslovakia, East Timor, China)

The central research question of this dissertation is why do velvet revolutions occur? To answer this question, we must answer another related question: how do velvet revolutions happen? I will answer this "how" question with an actor-based model of revolution. An actor-based model defines the relevant actors in any given context and charts their decision-making processes. From this theoretical model, I derive this study's central thesis that the interaction of dissidents and the state is the key to understanding how velvet revolutions occur. More explicitly, dissident ideology and organization, combined with the state's response to dissident provocation, determines whether a revolution will be velvet. This thesis is divided into three hypothesized requirements for velvet revolution. (1) There must be dissidents ideologically committed to nonviolence. (2) These dissidents must be sufficiently organized to successfully provoke the state. (3) The state must be ineffective at repressing dissidents or inadequately implement reform.; To test these hypotheses, this study analyzes two crucial cases that exemplify the process of velvet revolution, the Philippines (1986) and Czechoslovakia (1989). Both cases had dissidents who were ideologically committed to nonviolence and sufficiently organized to provoke the state, while the state was ineffective at repressing or implemented inadequate reforms. To highlight these elements, I contrast the crucial cases with three counter-cases, Nicaragua (1979), East Timor (2002), and China (1989). The counter-cases were chosen because one of the hypothesized elements was missing, resulting in a violent or failed revolution. Nicaragua did not have dissidents committed to nonviolence, East Timorese dissidents were not sufficiently organized to mobilize provocation of the state, and China effectively repressed the prodemocracy movement. For each case I chart the actions taken by dissidents, the state and the mass public with an events dataset created for this dissertation. Understanding the process of how velvet revolutions occurred or failed in each of these cases leads to answering why they occur. Velvet revolutions happen because of the choices of the key actors involved in the revolution. To alter an old maxim: people make velvet revolutions.