Interpreting Global Emissions Scenarios into a Local Scale Urban Growth Model: Truckee Meadows Metropolitan Region, NV, USA

Scenario-based studies are used in a number of disciplines to better understand future uncertainties and help governments, organizations, and industries make plans that can withstand a wider range of potential future states. This research presents four distinct urban growth scenarios and modeled impacts for the Truckee Meadows metropolitan region in Nevada, USA. The urban growth scenarios are interpreted from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Interpreting the SRES emissions scenarios into urban growth or land use change scenarios has been done in many regions of the world and at various sub-global scales, but this process has seen limited application at the local scale or in North America. The methodology for interpreting these scenarios to the local scale is discussed, along with how the scenarios are used to drive a cellular automata urban growth model. The urban growth impacts are assessed on the region's urban land use, housing, water use, and wastewater at 2029 and 2049. This impact analysis indicates the region could face significant resource challenges, and their timing and extent will likely be partially influenced by the driving forces explored in these scenarios. The SRES interpretation methodology presented in this research also provides a framework for future work to join SRES-linked urban growth and environmental models in order to conduct integrated climate change impact assessments at the local scale. Local scale analyses combining interrelated socio-economic and environmental issues will enable communities to make resilient plans which can adapt to and help mitigate a changing climate.