Assessing the conflict between wind energy development and sagegrouse conservation in Wyoming: An application using a spatially explicit wind development model

Concern about energy independence and climate change have driven state and federal governments to promote renewable energy production, mainly in the form of wind generated electricity. There are social costs of wind energy development, however, that can lower its environmental value. Most notably, wind turbines can impact wildlife and wildlife habitat. Wind-wildlife conflicts are particularly intense in Wyoming, which has more high-quality wind resources than all other western states combined. Wyoming also has the largest amount of intact sagebrush ecosystem, which provides habitat for 64% of the known greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population in the eastern portion of the species range. The greater sage-grouse was recently listed as a candidate on the endangered species list due largely to threats from energy development. Current legislation in Wyoming restricts wind energy development within greater sage-grouse core breeding areas. This suggests that the tradeoff between wind development and greater sage-grouse persistence is steep.;I develop an econometric model to estimate the probability of wind development across 26 million acres of Wyoming. I then use these probabilities to simulate a range of wind energy build-out levels, with and without the current sage-grouse core-area restrictions. The model predicts that locations closer to transmission lines with higher wind classes are most likely to be occupied in the future by a wind farm. Some of the high probability wind locations also coincide with sage-grouse core breeding areas. Thus, there is potential for conflict between sage-grouse conservation and future wind development. There is relatively little conflict at low build-out levels (1,650 MW); however, as more wind development is distributed across the landscape, conflict increases. In the absence of conservation a build-out of 13,770 MW results in potential impacts to 1,346 males on 56 leks (2.4% of Wyoming's male population based on 2007 maximum lek counts). Restricting development in sage-grouse core areas (as defined by WY state governor in executive order 2011--5) will result in 324 males on 19 leks being potentially influenced, a reduction of 1.82% with an energy development opportunity cost of a 4% reduction in wind energy profits. Thus, while there are certain to be conflicts between sage-grouse and wind energy development, my results suggests that Wyoming can harness its vast wind resources while conserving sage-grouse.