Spatial and temporal patterns of forest fire activity in Canada

Fire and weather archive data for the province of Ontario and Canada were investigated using spatial statistical and time series analysis methodologies. Spatial point pattern analysis was used to investigate spatial patterns of lightning-caused fire occurrence in Ontario. Lightning-caused forest fires were found to be spatially clustered. Evidence was found that this clustering follows the spatial pattern of lightning strikes on dry weather days. Time series analysis was used to investigate cycles and trends in annual number of fires and area burned in Ontario and Canada from 1917 to the present. A 2-year autocorrelation was found in fire occurrence and a 14-year autocorrelation in annual area burned. Statistical quality control methods were used to investigate long term shifts in the mean and variance of annual number of fires and annual area burned in Ontario and Canada. Small significant increases in number of fires and area burned were found.