Utilizing network analysis to identify critical vulnerability points in infrastructure and explain terrorist target selection

Analytical methods from network science can determine critical vulnerability points in various types of infrastructure and the extent to which terrorist groups select target locations to maximize disruption. Network analysis utilizes rules governing complex systems to provide a cost-effective and quick method to pinpoint the most critical elements of an infrastructure. The applications of these methods on several terrorism cases in Moscow, Mexico, and Mumbai involving subway and energy systems suggest that the level of sophistication of a terrorist group associates with the likelihood that they select infrastructure targets to cause maximum disruption. The analyses show that of the terrorists groups and attacks studied, Chechen terrorists in Moscow in 2004 and 2010 and to a moderate extent the Mexican People's Revolutionary Army in 2007 likely selected their targets to maximize disruption. Overall, the analyses suggest that sophisticated terrorists with resources and experience attacking infrastructure may use formal analytical methods similar to network analysis to select infrastructure targets to cause maximum disruption. Policymakers should encourage the use of analytical methods from other fields to analyze the probability of potential terrorist attacks on infrastructure and better inform security resource allocation.