Demand-supply dynamics in tourism systems: A spatio-temporal GIS analysis. The Alberta ski industry case study

The present research focuses on the interaction of supply and demand of down-hill ski tourism in the province of Alberta. The main hypothesis is that the demand for skiing depends on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the population living in the province and outside it. A second, consequent hypothesis is that the development of ski resorts (supply) is a response to the demand for skiing. From the latter derives the hypothesis of a dynamic interaction between supply (ski resorts) and demand (skiers). Such interaction occurs in space, within a range determined by physical distance and the means available to overcome it. The above hypotheses implicitly define interactions that take place in space and evolve over time. The hypotheses are tested by temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal regression models, using the best available data and the latest commercially available software. The main purpose of this research is to explore analytical techniques to model spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal dynamics in the context of regional science. The completion of the present research has produced more significant contributions than was originally expected. Many of the unexpected contributions resulted from theoretical and applied needs arising from the application of spatial regression models. Spatial regression models are a new and largely under-applied technique. The models are fairly complex and a considerable amount of preparatory work is needed, prior to their specification and estimation. Most of this work is specific to the field of application. The originality of the solutions devised is increased by the lack of applications in the field of tourism. The scarcity of applications in other fields adds to their value for other applications. The estimation of spatio-temporal models has been only partially attained in the present research. This apparent limitation is due to the novelty and complexity of the analytical methods applied. This opens new directions for further work in the field of spatial analysis, in conjunction with the development of specific software.