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Planning for Uncertainty: A Comparative Analysis of Alternative Fuels for Freight Shipping Companies

Posted on:2011-05-01Degree:Ph.DType:Thesis
University:The University of Wisconsin - MadisonCandidate:Pease, Megan MFull Text:PDF
GTID:2469390011470663Subject:Alternative Energy
Abstract/Summary:
Freight shipping company leaders are searching for methods to evaluate the fuel options and broaden the decision making process for comparing fuel choices, including the existing ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD). This dissertation will explain the synthesis of theory and development of a decision support tool used to answer the research question: What will be the selection of an alternative fuel for class 8 heavy duty diesel vehicles (HDDV) when the decision making process is expanded to include social, environmental and economic parameters? The fuels investigated to replace ULSD, biodiesel (BD20), compressed and liquefied natural gas (CNG, LNG), Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) and dimethyl ether (DME). The fuel alternatives evaluation tool (FAET) is a hierarchy of information organized into four matrices (Stakeholder, Infrastructure Change, Direct Cost, Externalities), 21 criteria and 81 indicators. The decision support tool was modified for two case studies of freight shipping companies, a small and large fleet, and applied to four scenarios (present, future, climate change and rebate). The results of the comparative analysis are presented in three different forms: the indicators summed, evenly weighting the results and using the relative values of the data. The FAET results for the scenarios support LNG as the fuel choice for both the large fleet case study of Schneider National., Inc. and the small fleet. When summing the indicators, LNG is the top choice for 32-37/81 indicators. When using the relative values, LNG is the top choice for 64% of the indicators and BD20 is the next top choice for 54% of the indicators. BD20 is often the next top choice for the scenarios and different results formats. Some of the benefits of LNG are the current low fuel cost and decreased GHG combustion emissions. Drawbacks of LNG use are the increased NOx, CO and CO2 emissions from combustion. The suggested fuel choice is a midterm horizon solution because natural gas is a non-renewable feedstock which could lead to similar problems in the future. The results were used to develop freight shipping fuel choice narratives.
Keywords/Search Tags:Fuel, Freight shipping, LNG, Results, Decision
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