Predicting institutional behavior in youthful offenders: The role of individual and family factors in risk assessment

A vigorous debate persists in the literature about the efficacy of clinical judgment and actuarial models of risk assessment. This study was designed to augment those commonly used methods by integrating a variety of factors that produce risk and protective effects among 101 youthful offenders. Adolescents and young adults in a maximum-security facility were interviewed with the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV), and completed self-reports of psychopathy, impulsivity, and perceived parental care and protection. This selection of empirically-supported predictors was enhanced by criminal history and family information obtained through extensive file review. Markedly different prediction models emerged based on age. ADHD and PCL Factor 2 predicted adolescents' institutional maladjustment. In contrast, young adults' institutional behavior was influenced by impulsivity, family substance abuse, and gang membership. Treatment progress also differed depending on age; the absence of certain risk factors predicted success for adolescents, while academic achievement and intelligence facilitated young adults' advancement. Importantly, support was demonstrated for the moderating effects of protective factors on violence. Finally, the predictive validity of newly-developed psychopathy self-reports was examined in relation to the PCL:YV. Both the SALE PS-24 and the APSD were modestly effective at differentiating between high and low levels of psychopathy.