The migration of California's welfare population

This dissertation examines factors that influence intrastate migration of AFDC recipients, and the migration of all Californians, with a focus on financial incentives to migration. The welfare magnet hypothesis proposes that a state offering high benefits attracts new recipients, and deters recipients from leaving the state. Previous studies of this hypothesis have provided varied estimates of the impact of welfare benefits on migration. A new approach is taken which focuses on moves within California. Three methods are used to analyze the impact of "real" benefits on intrastate moves: a county to county flow model, a family level migration model, and a regional multinomial logit model. Costs of living, particularly housing costs, differ considerably across California counties, yet the nominal welfare benefit is set at the state level. This creates the potential for variation in the purchasing power of the welfare benefit if a family chooses to move. Variation in cost of living is shown to have a significant effect on migration patterns of AFDC recipients. The county to county flow analysis predicts that a ;Low cost counties typically have relatively poor labor market conditions. Migrants to these counties may experience a reduction in labor market opportunities, possibly prolonging their time on welfare. A tobit regression and a duration model of spell length both suggest that changes in labor market conditions resulting from migration have a small significant effect on length of welfare use by young recipients, but this effect dissipates for older recipients.;There are no natural control groups in this analysis of welfare migration because all residents are affected by variation in cost of living. A comparative analysis of groups of Californians demonstrates that variations in fair market rent and labor market conditions affect migration of all residents, particularly women and less educated groups.