Research On The Non-linear Relationship Of National Currency Anchors Along The "One Belt And One Road"

In 2013,Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the “One Belt and One Road” cooperation initiative.The proposal of the “One Belt and One Road” strategic concept reflects the traditional Chinese cultural concept of peaceful development and win-win cooperation,which was warmly received by the countries along the “One Belt and One Road”.This initiative has the same strategic thinking orientation as the “RMB internationalization” strategy.At the same time,as one of the regions with the highest degree of “dollarization” in the world,the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” initiative have their historical roots.At the end of the 20th century,with the increasing degree of financial liberalization of countries along the “One Belt and One Road”,coupled with frequent financial and economic crises,countries along the “One Belt and One Road” began to move towards “RMB internationalization” and “de-dollarization”.This article combines theory with practice to verify the trend of “RMB internationalization” and “de-dollarization” of countries along the “One Belt and One Road” from the perspective of currency anchors.In the empirical analysis part: This paper divides the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” into six regions: ASEAN,CIS,South Asia,West Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,Central Asia.Divide the time span from July 2005 to October 2019 into four stages,namely July 2005 to September 2008,October 2008 to June 2010,July 2010 to August 2015 and 2015 September to October 2019.The logarithmic first-order difference data of the exchange rates of the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” are used for non-linear panel regression according to the above four periods.Finally,it was concluded that the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” had an overall “RMB internationalization” trend,but there was no “dedollarization” trend.The empirical results of non-linear panel regression by region show that all regions have the trend of “RMB internationalization”,but the “de-dollarization” trend only appears in some regions,and the other part has a certain “dollarization” trend.All regions are combined for empirical analysis,that is,the overall analysis of the countries along the “One Belt and One Road”,and it is concluded that the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” have a trend of “RMB internationalization” and a certain “dollarization” trend.According to the empirical results,the following conclusions are drawn: In the whole of the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” and most of the regions,the dollar ’s currency anchor effect is still greater than that of the renminbi.For the renminbi to become the first currency anchor of the countries along the “One Belt and One Road”,it still Promotion of relevant policy measures.And according to the empirical results of the nonlinear panel regression model,the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” only have a non-linear relationship of “C”,indicating that the impact of the US dollar,Euro,British pound,Japanese yen,RMB on the currency value of the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” can be visual.The use of a relatively gentle curve to describe the land means that the change of currency anchors of countries along the “One Belt and One Road” is a slow process.That is to say,the development of “RMB internationalization” and “de-dollarization” of countries along the “One Belt and One Road” will be a slow process.Finally,based on empirical conclusions,it provides policy recommendations for China to promote the “RMB internationalization” of countries along the “One Belt and One Road”.