Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of Climatic Productivity Potential In Heilongjiang Province

Climate productivity potential is an important basis to evaluate the availability of regional climate resources.The allocation of regional agricultural climate resources can be understood by estimating the regional climate productivity potential.Taking the climatic potential productivity of Heilongjiang Province as the research object,this study estimated the climatic potential productivity and its tendency rate of Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2019 through Miami model and Thornthwaite Memorial model by using statistical analysis methods and model simulation methods.Analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics,mutation situation,correlation and sensitivity with climate change,and analyze the future change trend.The climatic productivity potential of crop was compared with the actual yield per unit area of soybean,and the change characteristics of climatic resource utilization in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed.According to the spatial and temporal evolution of climate production potential of heilongjiang province's research,to give full play to the heilongjiang province climate productive potential,the rational use of climatic resources and improve the level of productivity in heilongjiang province to provide data support and theoretical support,to respond to climate change in heilongjiang province,guiding the reasonable layout of agricultural production,improve relevant policies to provide certain reference.The main findings of this study are as follows:(1)The climatic potential productivity of Heilongjiang Province has certain fluctuation and obvious spatial heterogeneity among years.Temperature potential productivity ranged from 19514.89 to 21955.98kg·hm^-2·a^-1,and the average temperature potential productivity was 20729.06kg·hm^-2·a^-1,with a rate of about 196kg·hm^-2·10a^-1,showing a significant upward trend,and a sudden change occurred around1995.The decadal spatial distribution has spatial heterogeneity.The lower regions are mainly concentrated in the areas with higher elevations of the Great and Small Xing'an Mountains,but their range is gradually shrinking.The spatial distribution is characterized by high in the south and low in the north,low in the east and high in the west.The variation range of precipitation potential productivity ranged from 5576.73 to 10830.79kg·hm^-2·a^-1,and the average precipitation potential productivity was7617.16kg·hm^-2·a^-1,which showed an increasing trend at a rate of about 89kg·hm^-2·10a^-1.There was a sudden change around 1962 and 2018.The decadal spatial distribution fluctuates greatly,and the spatial distribution is low in the south and high in the north,high in the east and low in the west.The range of evapotranspiration potential productivity ranged from 7338.68 to 12498.78kg·hm^-2·a^-1,and the average climatic potential productivity was 9539.93kg·hm^-2·a^-1,increasing at a rate of about 109kg·hm^-2·10a^-1.The abrupt change occurred around 1963 and 2018,showing strong spatial heterogeneity in the decadal spatial distribution changes.The spatial distribution changes are large,showing the characteristics of low in the south and high in the north,high in the east and low in the west.The climatic potential productivity ranged from 5602.99 to 10929.43kg·hm^-2·a^-1,and the average climatic potential productivity was7662.42kg·hm^-2·a^-1,with a rate of about 86kg·hm^-2·10a^-1,showing an upward trend.The abrupt change of climatic productivity potential occurred around 1963 and 2017,which showed strong spatial heterogeneity in the interdecadal spatial distribution.The spatial distribution changed greatly,which was lower in the south and higher in the north,higher in the east and lower in the west,and increased from south to north.The water-heat ratio varied from 0.2607 to 0.5226,with an average value of 0.3696.In terms of spatial distribution,it was lower in the south and higher in the north,while higher in the east and lower in the west.(2)The main limiting factor of climatic potential productivity in Heilongjiang Province is precipitation,which is very sensitive to both temperature and precipitation.The"warm and wet"and"cold and wet"climates are favorable to the growth of crops,while the"warm and dry"and"cold and dry"climates are unfavorable to the growth of crops.It is found that the variation trend of climate productivity potential in the future is basically the same as that in the past 59 years,but there are significant differences in the strength of the variation trend,and the climate productivity potential in most areas of the province will continue to increase.(3)From 1980 to 2019,the yield per unit area of soybean crop in Heilongjiang Province increased first and then decreased,from 1058 to 2408kg·hm^-2·a^-1.The climatic productivity potential of crops also fluctuated,but the increase trend was not significant.The utilization rate of climate resources in Heilongjiang Province increased firstly and then decreased,and reached the maximum value of 81.18%in 1999,which was increased by 51.45%compared with 1981.