Research On The Application Of Improved Grey Markov Model In Electromechanical Equipment Evaluation

As one of the three basic evaluation methods in the world,cost method is widely used in the field of electromechanical equipment evaluation.However,in the evaluation practice of mechanical and electrical equipment,the determination of the main parameters of cost method depends on the experience judgment of the evaluators,and subjectivity is unavoidable.Although scholars have introduced AHP and entropy value method to optimize the parameter assignment of cost method,the problem of high subjective noise in cost method evaluation of mechanical and electrical equipment can not be completely avoided.Because of this,this paper tries to explore from the perspective of income method of electromechanical equipment evaluation mechanism,and the focus of research focused on how to determine the income approach is one of the three core indicators,earnings forecast,by building improved earnings forecast model and applied to mechanical and electrical equipment evaluation,to achieve the goal of minimize the subjective noise assessment.In this paper,the idea of metabolism is introduced into the grey prediction model,and the state interval of Markov chain is divided by Fisher optimal segmentation method.Then,the grey metabolism is combined with the improved Markov chain,and the improved combination method is used as the basis to predict the future revenue of mechanical and electrical equipment.Further,this paper takes in the operating state of the taxi as evaluation target,through the questionnaire survey the history of the sample collection was yield sequence,through to compare the fitting value and real value,found in the "small sample,poor information" situation,compared with grey prediction and grey metabolism model,grey markov model and metabolism of grey markov model,the improved grey markov model in prediction accuracy on the overall performance is better.Finally,the evaluation value of the sample taxi is calculated by the method of present value of revenue.This study makes a bold exploration and attempt on the application of income method in the evaluation of mechanical and electrical equipment from the theoretical level,which forms a beneficial supplement to the existing evaluation theory and method system of mechanical and electrical equipment.Study found that income method is different from common replacement cost method and income method under the idea of mechanical and electrical equipment assets,use the longer,the greater the degree is not a loss assessment value,the lower its value is mainly composed of profitability in the inner world of the remaining useful life of the decision in predicting method level,further research may try to expand the test samples and test category assessment target,further verify the improvement of the superiority of grey markov model in terms of earnings forecasts.At the same time,aiming at the present stage the model of GM(1,1)prediction,minus sequence type "on the metabolism of mind there is still room for improvement,and further to GM(1,1)development of GM(1,n),will"add minus sequence type "metabolism to expand as" weighted sequential type "metabolism,to further strengthen the prediction precision of the model,to ensure that the figures of mechanical and electrical equipment evaluation value is more close to its real value.