| Cangzhou is located in the Bohai economic circle and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle,connecting Beijing and Tianjin as well as the eastern coastal areas,and is an important transportation hub.Due to the lack of fresh water resources and the long-term excessive exploitation and utilization of groundwater,many environmental geological problems have arisen directly or indirectly.At present,the development degree of shallow water in Cangzhou still needs to be improved,among which there are considerable resources of brackish water and brackish water,and the development potential is great.In this paper,the shallow groundwater of Mengcun Hui Autonomous County and Yanshan County in the southeast of Luzhou City is used as the research object,first collects the hydrogeology,meteorological and hydrological series of data in the research area,and analyzes it on this basis,first establishes the hydrogeological concept model using The Visual MODFLOW software,then generalizes the boundary conditions and the hydraulic characteristics of the aquifer in the research area,establishes the mathematical model of groundwater flow,and determines the corresponding hydrogeological parameters according to the collected data and past experience.The collected source sink item data is collated and analyzed and entered into the model in the appropriate format.Using the observation value of the observation well from January 2018 to December 2018 to fit with the water level value of the identification model,the effect is good and the accuracy standard is reached,which indicates that the model is more in line with the actual situation,and then the observation value of the observation well from January 2019 to December2019 is fitted with the water level value of the verification model,the results are good,and the reliability of the model can be verified,so the model can be used for groundwater level prediction.In order to understand the variation trend of diving level and provide scientific basis for the development and utilization of shallow water,a prediction model is established to predict the water level.The prediction period is from January 2021 to December 2025,and nine scenarios are adopted in three scenarios: baseline scenario,climate change scenario and human activity change scenario.According to the analysis of the results of the scenarios,the overall rise and annual growth of the subsurface water level in different scenarios are obtained.The optimal scheme is scheme 7,whose diving level increases by 1.52 m overall and 0.3m annually.Compared with other schemes,scheme 7 makes reasonable and effective use of shallow groundwater.Through the analysis of the current in the study area in the development and utilization of groundwater resources still exist deficiencies,clear the significance of the development and utilization of shallow water,according to the predicted results from the three aspects of the shallow water resources development and utilization of the proposal,respectively is: one is the government should increase the intensity of subsidies and policy support,encourage the use of shallow wells,improve the utilization efficiency of shallow well;Second,in terms of technology,it is necessary to strengthen the technical research on brackish water and brackish water,popularize the brackish and fresh mixed pouring technology and brackish and fresh wheel irrigation technology,and promote the drainage of brackish and fresh water and improve the water environment.Third,in terms of water use,it is necessary to broaden the application scope of brackish water and brackish water in shallow water,and use the water supply method based on quality to replace part of domestic water,and make full use of shallow water resources according to the characteristics of shallow water wells. |
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