Pork Price Analysis And Forecast Research Under The Influence Of African Swine Fever

Pork is the main source of meat for Chinese residents,and it has the basic livelihood attributes of the country.In recent years,the price of pork has fluctuated under the influence of internal and external factors,and production and supply fluctuate constantly.In addition,the African swine fever epidemic has swept the world,directly affecting the healthy development of the domestic pig industry and bringing greater impact to people's daily lives.In order to better grasp the price law of the live pig industry,assess the impact of the African swine fever epidemic on pork prices,and explore price prediction methods based on the impact of the epidemic,this article collected relevant pork and its influencing factors from January 2012 to July 2020 The monthly price index of the company is researched from two levels of data analysis and price prediction:1.Analyze section.This article first collects and establishes 15 indicators and 1545 basic data that affect pork prices,introduces the CPI index and national reserve meat release data,and proposes the monthly flags affected by the African swine fever epidemic;then based on the established data Based on the qualitative analysis,combined with the characteristics of the data sequence shown by the African swine fever epidemic,it is proposed that the pork price sequence is affected by the African swine fever epidemic,and the sequence is over-trend;secondly,it is proposed based on normalization and gray correlation analysis Quantitative analysis was carried out by methods such as correlation coefficient analysis and linear regression analysis;finally,a correlation model was established.2.forecast section.This article first introduces two time series models,ARIMA(Autoregressive Differential Moving Average)and LSTM(Long Short Term Memory Neural Network),to preprocess pork price series,optimize parameters and forecast;Then based on large-scale epidemic divided over the corresponding section of the pork price trend phenomenon generated sequence,proposed large-scale epidemic influence degree coefficient DA pork prices(Degree Coefficient Of African Swine Fever)On the basis of the prediction model and on its were constructed;Secondly,several combination methods(linear regression,random forest,arithmetic average)of ARIMA model,LSTM model and conventional combined model were explored,and the prediction ability of single model and combined model was compared.Finally,the epidemic impact degree coefficient DA was proposed.Optimization method.Through analysis and forecasting,on the one hand,a relatively complete data set was formed,which supplemented the narrow data coverage and small quantity in the traditional pork price forecasting research,and obtained the key and controlling factors affecting the price of pork,which explained the African swine fever epidemic.It has a greater impact on pork prices;on the one hand,a quantitative method was constructed to describe the extent of the impact of a large-scale epidemic on pork prices,and the DA value of this African swine fever epidemic was 0.505;on the other hand,in the subsequent pork prices In terms of predictive ability,the LSTM model performs better than the ARIMA model and several conventional combination models.Through this study,we hope to scientifically grasp and control the most relevant factors affecting pork prices,accurately grasp the future development trend of pork prices,promote the improvement of the pig industry structure,increase farmers' production and income,and contribute to the country's rural revitalization.