Value Assessment Of Online Education Companies Based On ARIMA-FCFF Model

With the rapid development of the online education industry,how to effectively evaluate the value of online education companies has become a common concern in academic circles and financial institutions.Compared with traditional companies,online education companies have big differences in corporate characteristics and profit models.The characteristics are: the company's products are diversified,the company's early investment is large,and the requirements for technical capabilities are high.When assessing the value of an online education company,the company's profitability,operating capacity,asset-liability structure and other financial factors can no longer fully reflect the company's value,such as brand influence,teaching and research capabilities,teacher strength,technical staff capabilities,user satisfaction,Non-financial factors such as user stickiness and user scale play an important role in the value of online education companies.In view of this,this article will discuss both financial and nonfinancial factors when evaluating the value of online education companies.Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics and free cash flow of the case company Fangzhi Technology in this article,it is found that the use of traditional valuation models is not suitable for the company.According to the situation of free cash flow,it analyzes the difficulty of the value evaluation of the case company,and tries to improve the free cash flow forecast of the company through the time series analysis method.After many model experiments,it is found that using the ARIMA model to improve the forecast of operating income in the free cash flow can achieve the improvement of the free cash flow forecasting effect.Therefore,this paper uses the ARIMA model to improve the traditional FCFF valuation model and combines it with non-Financial factors adjust the value of the company,and discuss the value evaluation of the case company through the established ARIMA-FCFF model.The ARIMA-FCFF model established in this paper is more suitable for online education companies.The ARIMA-FCFF model is a valuation model based on free cash flow.It is very reasonable to evaluate the value of online education companies.It can improve the instability of free cash flow and the valuation errors caused by many negative values,and consider The impact of external factors on the value of the company,thereby more objectively reflecting the overall value of the online education company.At present,for the capital market,value investment is a relatively correct investment concept.The value of stocks always fluctuates around its intrinsic value is the core point of value investment.For investors,rational investment is the key,which requires accurate assessment and judgment of the value of the company,so as to make reasonable investment decisions on the target company,so that the investment decision has good rationality and more reasonable and accurate judgments.The investment value of the target company.For company managers,they must have a clear self-understanding of the company's value,which requires an objective value evaluation system to help managers discover the source of company value and the logic of value growth,so as to enhance the company's value management Ability to maximize the value of the company.This thesis is mainly divided into five parts to be written: Chapter 1 summarizes the research background and significance of this article.Through consulting about the company value evaluation theory,online education company value evaluation,FCFF valuation model,ARIMA prediction model,non-financial The domestic and foreign research results of factor correction valuation models,expounding the research ideas and methods,and then setting the basic framework of this article.The second chapter is a theoretical overview from the perspectives of online education companies and value evaluation,FCFF valuation models,online education companies' free cash flow valuation difficulties and ARIMA forecasting methods,and online education companies' ARIMA-FCFF model construction and effect evaluation.The research and case analysis in this article provide a theoretical basis.The third chapter introduces the case company-Fangzhi Technology,and introduces the valuation case and its online education background in detail,so as to analyze the applicable premise of the application of the ARIMA-FCFF valuation model to the value evaluation of Fangzhi Technology.Chapter 4,based on the identification of Fangzhi Technology's value drivers and financial analysis,brings the company into the ARIMA-FCFF model to conduct a valuation study.After robustness testing and comparison with other models,the final result is obtained.Chapter 5,through the entire case analysis process,combined with the theoretical basis,draws relevant conclusions and enlightenments:(1)This article uses the ARIMA model to improve the traditional FCFF model,which improves the accuracy of the company's free cash flow forecast and makes the final estimate The value result is more in line with the actual situation of the company.At the same time,it was found in the valuation process that for online education companies,external factors play a certain role in the company's value.(2)For online education company managers,the ARIMA-FCFF valuation model can strengthen their value management,improve the company's value creation efficiency,and maximize the company's value;from the investor's perspective,the ARIMA-FCFF valuation model has It is conducive to making reasonable investment decisions for investors of online education companies;for market regulators,the application of ARIMA-FCFF valuation model valuation can more accurately reflect the value of online education companies,and the pricing management of online education companies and It is helpful to examine the company's long-term value creation capabilities.With the development of information technology in our country,the online education industry has a good development trend and online education companies will gradually become common.It is believed that scholars in the future will gradually increase the academic research on the value evaluation of online education companies,and the valuation system of online education companies will follow.It will become more and more perfect.Based on the technological development of big data,the consideration of internal and external factors of online education companies will move towards standardization and maturity.