The Influence Of Drug-related Personnels' Routine Activity On The Spatio-temperal Pattern Of Theft

As the routine activity theory,the spatio-temporal pattern of crime is strongly related to routine activity of victims and offenders.However,due to the difficulty of data acquisition,there is a lack of research on offenders' routine activity and the spatio-temporal pattern of crime events.According to the research of Western criminologists and the current situation of China's social security in recent years,a large number of drug-related personnel are regarded as unstable factors in our society.The group are potential offenders of property crimes,who often committing theft in public places,causing property losses to passers-by.The existing literature shows that there is a great correlation between drug-related personnel and property crimes such as theft,but less attention is paid to the spatio-temperal characteristics of drug-related personnel's routine activity and their impact on crime.Based on this,this study verifies the role of the routine activity of offenders in shaping the spatial-temporal pattern of theft through analyzing the impact of the routine activity of drug-related personnel on theft.In this paper,taking XT police district with 150 m × 150 m grids in ZG city in southern China as an example,the theft data,routine activity data of drug-related personnel,POI data and patrol and interrogation data were used.Poisson regression models were established respectively in serial periods of different scales to analyse the temporal influence difference of drug-related personnels' routine activity on the spatial pattern of theft quantitatively.And Geo-Detector models were used to analyse the interaction between “Crime triangle”variables and built environment variables,consequently discuss the formation mechanism of spatio-temporal pattern of theft.The results show that: 1)Compared with traditional static arrest or policing events data,active routine activity data of potential offenders and victims could promote goodness of fit in models effectively.2)Compared with total amount of people in whole day,active real-time activity data of drug-related personnel and residents could explain the spatial pattern of theft better.3)The routine activity of drug-related personnel have a greater impact on the theft which occur in the vicinity in nonworking days.4)Static land use density has different influence on theft events in different periods.5)Built environment variables and "crime triangle" variables have bi-factors or nonlinear enhancement effect,which can promote each other's influence on theft.The above results verify the relationship between the routine activity of drug-related personnel and the the spatio-temporal pattern of theft.The research conclusions verify and enrich the routine activity theory,which can provide a certain reference for the actual crime prediction and police deployment.According to the spatio-temporal characteristics in routine activity of drug-related personnel obtained in this study,we can further optimize the routine patrol route of police in the research area,and effectively improve the effect of policing prevention and patrol.