| The state of soil and water resources is related to the stability of agricultural production in a region,and the study of its matching characteristics is an important subject of agricultural development.However,the changes of precipitation and temperature caused by climate change directly affect the efficient utilization of regional soil and water resources.Climate warming is easy to cause evaporation to increase and soil effective water to decrease,which leads to the change of water and heat pattern,soil and water matching pattern,and finally leads to the decrease of soil and water resource utilization efficiency.At the same time,crop planting structure adjustment will directly or indirectly affect the allocation of agricultural soil and water resources.Liaoning province is an important corn production base in China,which occupies an important position in ensuring national food security.In the past50 years,the trend of climate warming and drying in Northeast China has been obvious,mainly in the aspects of continuous increase of heat and decrease of precipitation,the water footprint of crop production can reflect the efficiency of water resources utilization and real water consumption in the process of agricultural production.This study attempts to establish a close relationship between climate change and soil and water resources matching by using water footprint theory and method.It is of great practical significance to explore the matching characteristics of soil and water resources in spring maize growth period of Liaoning province under climate change.Based on the data of 19 meteorological stations in Liaoning province from 1970 to 2018and the historical observation data of maize growth period,this paper analyzes the climate change characteristics of Liaoning province by means of effective precipitation,actual crop evapotranspiration and surface wetting index;by using the software of water footprint theory,generalized agricultural soil and water resources matching coefficient,the matching characteristics of soil and water resources during spring maize growth period were calculated,and The influence of climate change on soil and water resources matching degree during maize growth period was analyzed by correlation analysis,and the future soil and water resources matching trend was predicted by gray prediction model,so as to enhance the climate adaptability of maize planting.At the same time,it provides theoretical support for agricultural water,land use,irrigation measures,crop layout and so on.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The change trend of soil and water resources in spring maize growth period of Liaoning province at the rate of 2.99 m3/hm2·a-1from 1970 to 2018 was not large,and the lowest value was 5032.53 m3/hm2in 1985.The matching coefficient of soil and water resources in spring corn growth period of Liaoning province was the highest in the 1970s,the mean value was 5824.11 m3/hm2,the mean value of soil and water resources matching coefficient in spring corn growth period was 5491.11 m3/hm2in 90s,which was the lowest value of the interdecadal mean value.(2)From the spatial point of view,the matching coefficient of soil and water resources in northern,southeast and Benxi,Zhangdang,Suizhong,Xingcheng and other places and their surrounding areas is lower,and the matching coefficient of soil and water resources in western Liaoning and central and eastern Qingyuan is higher,among which the matching coefficient of spring corn and soil resources in Anshan-Dalian line and its surrounding area is the highest.Among them,the matching value of soil and water resources in spring maize growth period of Liaoning province in 70's is relatively high in space.(3)The matching coefficient of soil and water resources is negatively correlated with surface wetting index and precipitation,and the correlation coefficient is 0.63 and 0.47,respectively.The accumulated temperature and soil and water resources are relatively low,and the correlation coefficient is only 0.1.The precipitation and surface wetting index were the highest in 1985,and the soil and water resources matching coefficient in spring maize growth period was significantly different in eastern and western regions.In 2000,the precipitation and surface wetting index were the lowest,and the matching coefficient of soil and water resources in the central region was higher.In the spring of 1976,the accumulated temperature of maize was lower,and the matching of soil and water resources was lower.(4)According to the MATLAB software,the gray prediction model is established to predict the change trend of agricultural soil and water resources in different regions of Liaoning province in the next 20 years,among them,the matching of soil and water resources in Anshan area is not obviously decreasing in the next 20 years,Suizhong area is showing a weak upward trend,and soil and water resources in Kaiyuan area show an obvious growth trend in the next 20 years.The change trend of soil and water resources in Dandong area is not significant in the next 20 years. |
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