Carrying Capacity Of Resources And Environment In Coastal Waters Of Guangdong Province

The outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to actively expand the space for marine economic development,adhere to land and sea coordination,and build a maritime power.As of 2019,Guangdong's marine production has reached 2 trillion yuan,and the marine economy has ranked first in my country for 25 consecutive years.It is a well-deserved marine province.In 2019,the provincial party committee formulated an action plan for accelerating the development of six marine industries,which will be built in the future.With several hundred-billion-level industrial clusters,the marine economy has undoubtedly become a huge engine driving Guangdong's economic growth.The rapid economic development is also accompanied by the emergence of some natural resources and environmental problems.The ocean has a strong self-purification ability and accepts pollutants discharged from the sewage outlets of the land area,and the marine ecosystem bears the brunt.Therefore,it is necessary to in-depth research on marine-related carrying capacity in order to realize the sustainability of marine ecological environment and economic and social development.This paper will explore the methods,methods and index system of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coastal waters based on the relevant carrying capacity research,establish an evaluation model based on ecological footprint and principal factor analysis,and carry out quantitative analysis.The former focuses on the coastal area.For the ecological environment of the sea area,the latter conducts a comprehensive analysis of the composite system of the ocean,each with its own focus,and the evaluation results provide support for subsequent predictions and countermeasures.The specific research results include the following:(1)Comprehensive analysis of the resource environment and economic and social development of the coastal waters of Guangdong Province.The analysis of basic data shows that the coastal area of Guangdong Province has a very developed economy and a high level of urbanization,but it shows uncoordinated regional development and obvious reclamation.Although the coastal area has abundant marine resources,the utilization rate of resources is not high,the ecological environment has been damaged to a certain extent,and the amount of industrial wastewater and waste discharged into the sea is increasing.(2)Evaluate in combination with ecological footprint model and principal factor analysis model.The results of the ecological footprint model show that the ecological footprint of biomass consumption and energy consumption are in an ecological deficit,and the ecological footprint of pollutant consumption is in an ecological surplus.On the whole,the ecological deficit accounted for the proportion of ecological carrying capacity from 3.71%in 2009 to 83.97% in 2018,indicates that the ecological carrying capacity and social development of the coastal waters are still close to full at this stage.The results of the model based on principal factor analysis show that the load capacity was still in a loadable state from 2009 to 2016,and the overall carrying capacity was overloaded in 2017-2018,but the situation has improved and tends to a critical point.(3)Carrying capacity prediction through GM(1.1)gray prediction model.The results on the horizontal axis show that the resource and environmental carrying capacity of coastal waters will continue the development trend from 2009 to 2018,showing an upward trend.The carrying capacity index will rise from 0.1107 in 2018 to 0.1609 in 2025 and 2030.Of0.2102.The carrying capacity forecast with the city as the horizontal axis shows that the carrying capacity level of western Guangdong is relatively high,but Zhuhai has the largest annual growth rate,which will increase by 6.73% by 2030,followed by Shenzhen and Dongguan,which both surpass the coastal areas.The average level.Finally,suggestions for improving the carrying capacity of the coastal waters are proposed.One is to rely on marine environmental governance and to increase marine scientific and technological innovation;the other is to establish people's awareness of marine environmental protection,and adhere to the protection and protection of land-sea integrated natural ecosystems.Repair;the third is to focus on regional coordination,accelerate the transformation of economic development models,and optimize the layout of the industrial structure.