Comprehensive Evaluation Of Water Resources Security In Dagong Yellow River Diversion Irrigation Area Of Henan Province

As a strategic resource for economic growth and social development,water resources not only support the sustainable development of human economy and society,but also maintain the balance of ecosystem.Water resources are also the basic guarantee for the survival and development of a country.In recent years,water resources security has gradually come into the public view and become the core of people's attention.Henan Province is a traditional big grain Province in China,but the water resources in Henan Province,especially the water resources per capita in the area along the Yellow River,are in serious shortage.The production of food,cotton,oil and other necessities for national production and life depends on the irrigation area.The unified irrigation district only pays attention to the engineering problems,often ignores the ecological problems,and exposes a series of water resources security problems.In order to alleviate the problem of water shortage in Henan Province,ensure the safe production of grain in the irrigation area,and ensure the construction of the Central Plains Economic Zone,we should consider improving the utilization efficiency of water resources in the Yellow River and the ability of water resources security in the Yellow River irrigation area.Therefore,this paper selects Dagong Irrigation District in Henan Province as the research area,and applies a variety of evaluation methods to evaluate and analyze the water resources security of the irrigation district,which is helpful for the Yellow River Diversion Irrigation District to grasp the water resources security status and formulate improvement countermeasures,and promote the comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development of the irrigation district.The main contents are as follows:(1)The evaluation index system of water resources security in Dagong Yellow River diversion irrigation area was established.The current definition of water resources security is summarized,and the evaluation method of water resources security suitable for this study is selected.Based on the analysis of the water resources situation of the Yellow River in Dagong irrigation area of Henan Province,according to the current situation and actual characteristics of the study area,taking water resources security as the overall goal,from three aspects of economic and social security,water resources security and ecological environment security,12 indicators are selected to form the evaluation index system.(2)This paper evaluates the water resources security status of Dagong Yellow River Diversion Irrigation Area in current years.The subjective weighting and the combination of subjective and objective weighting are selected to calculate the weight of the evaluation index respectively,and then combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and TOPSIS Model(superior and inferior solution distance method),the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,Entropy TOPSIS Model are used to evaluate the evaluation index data of Dagong Yellow River Diversion Irrigation Area from 2010 to 2019,and the evaluation results are analyzed.(3)The results of risk early warning assessment of water resources security in Dagong Yellow River diversion irrigation area are calculated.Based on the index data from 2010 to2019,BP artificial neural network model is used to predict the index data of Dagong Irrigation District in 2025,2030 and 2035,and the risk assessment of water resources security is carried out.According to the prediction results,in the next 15 years,the water resources security of Dagong Yellow River Diversion Irrigation Area will be significantly improved compared with the past.According to the prediction results,the early warning level of water resources security risk in irrigation area is obtained,and the early warning chart of water resources security risk in irrigation area is drawn,so as to improve the security guarantee ability.