Simulation Study Of Metro Emergency Evacuation Based On Behavior Decision Model

The subway is the backbone of the urban public transportation system,which is fast,convenient,economical and environmentally friendly.As an important place for gathering and dispersing passengers,subway stations are particularly important for the safe evacuation of people in emergencies.However,scholars at home and abroad still have some problems and challenges in the study of subway emergency evacuation simulation and decision-making theory.First,the exit decision-making mechanism adopted by the simulation model is usually the shortest path rule under the assumption that pedestrians are completely rational and fully informed,or the discrete choice model rule based on the theory of random utility maximization,which is inconsistent with reality;secondly,individual decision-making research Inadequate consideration is given to psychological factors such as environmental perception and cognitive level,which may lead to model setting errors and parameter estimation deviations.Finally,the homogeneity hypothesis of the evacuation simulation group is inconsistent with the reality.Most simulation models assume that the individuals that make up the evacuation group are homogeneous,that is,there is no difference in the physiology,psychology,and decision-making mechanism of the individuals.In reality,there are obvious differences between individuals.There is heterogeneity.Therefore,this study is based on behavioral decision-making theory,comprehensively considers the pedestrian's spatial cognition level and the influence of heterogeneity among individuals to construct an export choice model,and verifies the introduction of spatial cognition level through simulation results,considers the heterogeneity between individuals,and makes decisions based on different behaviors.The necessity of rule modeling.The main research contents are as follows:First,build an exit decision model based on random utility theory,comprehensively considering the basic characteristics of pedestrians and the attributes of the evacuation environment,and discuss the difference between individual choice preferences in the evacuation simulation process relative to the actual results,and compare it with the traditional model that does not consider the individual's spatial cognition level,In order to reveal the mechanism of spatial cognition for pedestrian behavior decision-making.Second,based on the random regret theory,the individual attribute regret weight is estimated according to the results of the questionnaire survey,so as to construct a classic random regret minimization model that does not consider the heterogeneity of decision makers and a generalized random regret minimization model that considers the heterogeneity of decision makers.Through comparative analysis,explore the influence of heterogeneity among individuals on pedestrian exit decision-making.Third,based on the cumulative prospect theory,consider the heterogeneity of decision-makers' reference points to construct a homogenous reference point and a heterogeneous reference point respectively to construct an exit selection model to explore the difference in emergency evacuation decisions for pedestrians in emergencies.Finally,from the different psychological perspectives of utility,prospects,and regret,according to the evaluation indicators of simulation results,we compare and analyze the influence of different exit decision-making mechanisms on evacuation efficiency and behavioral decision-making,and explore which behavioral decisionmaking rules affect pedestrian evacuation decision-making behavior in a multi-exit subway environment.The description is more accurate.The simulation results show that:(1)There are differences in the selection preferences of different individuals.The simulation model simulates the decisionmaking behavior of different pedestrians with basic characteristics.The results are closer to the actual selection situation,and the overall average prediction error is only2.4%;(2)Considering the level of pedestrian space cognition and the impact of heterogeneity among individuals,the improved ML model based on the assumption of complete rationality and the heterogeneous PT model based on the assumption of bounded rationality can better describe the export choice behavior of decision makers,and can reveal more effectively The decision-making behavior characteristics and psychological preferences of the evacuees are improved by 26 s and 48 s respectively compared with the traditional model;(3)The path decision result of the model is closer to the real observation result in the questionnaire survey setting,the error is only 0.7%and 4.5 %,with higher predictive performance.The simulation results in this paper will provide scientific basis and theoretical support for subway operation to formulate reasonable and effective emergency evacuation plans.