Evaluation Of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Land Resources In Hami City Under Water Resources Constraints

Land resources are the basis of human production and life.All human activities are directly or indirectly related to land resources.The comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources is an index for comprehensive evaluation of land resources.In order to understand the development of land resources in Hami,this paper studies the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Hami.Taking Hami as the research area,this paper uses the data of water resources,ecological environment,population,economy and social development of Hami,combined with the land use data in 1980,1990,2000,2010 and 2018 to establish the evaluation system of land resources carrying capacity of Hami,and analyzes the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources from 2000 to 2019.Through the obstacle factor method,this paper analyzes the main factors and criteria that hinder the improvement of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Hami.Combined with ecological footprint,relative carrying capacity analysis,economic carrying capacity analysis and other methods,the population,economic and ecological carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Hami was evaluated.Based on this,combined with the relevant planning documents,this paper uses the grey prediction model to predict the population,economic and ecological carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Hami in 2025 and 2030.The main conclusions are as follows(1)From 2000 to 2019,the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Hami will be upgraded from low to medium.From the criteria level,the carrying capacity of economic,technological and social development subsystem of Hami is increasing year by year,and the evaluation value of water and soil resources system and ecosystem carrying capacity is small.From the index level,effective irrigation rate,per capita water resources and per capita construction land area are the main factors restricting the improvement of comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources in Hami.(2)From the evaluation index results,the population carrying capacity of local water resources and the actual carrying capacity of industrial economy of water resources in Hami in 2018 are in an overload state;Through the water resources load index,it is found that the degree of water resources development and utilization in Hami from 2011 to 2019 is high,the development potential is relatively limited,and the development conditions are insufficient;It is found that the carrying capacity of urban land resources in Hami is overloaded from 2012 to 2017.After 2017,with the expansion of the built-up area,urban land is enough to support the population development of Hami;The results of land resources carrying capacity of Hami Based on LCCI show that the carrying capacity of cultivated land and rural population in Hami will continue to improve from 2014 to 2019;The local economic carrying capacity of Hami calculated by population economic carrying capacity model shows that the economic carrying capacity of land resources in Hami is increasing year by year from2000 to 2019.(3)According to the comprehensive prediction results,the comprehensive carrying capacity of local land resources in Hami is gradually improved.In 2025 and 2030,the economic carrying capacity of land resources in Hami will be greatly improved compared with that in 2018;With the support of relevant guidance documents,the population that can be carried by construction land and cultivated land has increased significantly.By comparing the economic carrying capacity of water resources under industrial water transfer and different water transfer scenarios,it is found that the economic carrying capacity of water resources is the strongest under the scenario of 500 million cubic meters of water transfer project.