Establishment And Analysis Of The Model In The Influence Of Non-clinc Patients On Disease Transmission

The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of non-clinic patients on the spread of infectious diseases.According to the characteristics of disease transmission,the mathematical model was established.The stability analysis,numerical simulation,parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were carried out to observe the influence of parameters on the model.The main contents are as follows:1、According to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases and the characteristics of diseases,the infectious disease model with the influence of non-clinic patients was considered,and the basic regeneration number and the existence of equilibrium point were obtained by dynamic analysis.Combining the model with the actual data,the specific parameter values were obtained by MCMC parameter estimation,and then the coincidence degree between the model and the actual data was observed by numerical simulation.In order to verify that the model conforms to the actual situation of disease transmission,the sensitivity analysis of PRCC was used to study the influence of each parameter on the final number of patients.By controlling the parameter variables,to achieve the purpose of reducing the final number of patients.Thus we could give reliable suggestions to the disease control staff for preventing and controlling the spread of diseases.2、On the basis of the infectious disease model mentioned above,considering the lag of patients after infection,the SIS model with distributed delay was established by adding distributed delay to non-clinic patients and clinic patients.The dynamics analysis was carried out,the basic regeneration number of the model was calculated,and the stability of the equilibrium point was analyzed.The parameters were assigned,and the numerical simulation was carried out to observe the increasing and decreasing trend of the number of patients.