Research On The Impact Of Dust Disasters On The Economy Of Inner Mongolia Based On The DSGE Model

With the changes in the earth's atmospheric environment,extreme meteorological disasters frequently occur all over the world.As a kind of extreme regional meteorological disasters,dust disasters are often the easiest to be ignored,but the economic losses caused should not be underestimated.dust disasters refer to disasters that affect the environment and human activities due to the occurrence of dust weather.Most scholars focus on the statistics of the economic losses caused by dust disasters in various sectors,focusing on the direct economic "tangible losses",which have caused serious impacts on agriculture,animal husbandry,transportation,and human health.Ignoring the “potential”industry-related losses caused by dust disasters,resulting in inaccurate selection of disaster loss evaluation paths and methods,and possibly underestimating the impact of dust disasters on the economy.In order to reduce the occurrence of this inaccuracy,the article conducts in-depth research from the broader path of the impact of dust disasters on the economy.In view of the extensive impact of the above dust disasters on the economy,the article takes the dust disasters as an influencing factor,constructs a stochastic CGE model,and analyzes the impact of dust disasters on the economy of Inner Mongolia.First,the Monte Carlo method is used to randomly sample the probability of dust disasters and calculate the impact parameters of random dust disasters.Secondly,the standard CGE model introduces shock parameters that have a significant impact on economic output and the rate of change in the total supply of social labor in the classic CES production function,and adds the rate of change in the expenditure share of early warning and protective measures in the revenue and expenditure module.,A stochastic CGE model was constructed to simulate the impact of dust disasters on the economy of Inner Mongolia.Finally,the plan designed five levels of dust disasters and the increased preventive measures of different disasters on the economic impact of Inner Mongolia at the macro,industry,and micro levels.The research results show that:(1)The impact of dust disasters on the macro-level economy is generally significant.The occurrence of dust disasters reduces the actual GDP and employment rate,and the magnitude of the decline is positively correlated with the magnitude of the disaster level;the index has no effect.(2)The impact of dust disasters on the total output of various industrial sectors is different.dust disasters have a significant impact on the total output of various industrial sectors.Among them,the impact on planting,animal husbandry and transportation,storage and post Departments and health and social work sectors are the most significant.For forestry,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery service products,construction and other service sectors,the industry sector is not significant.(3)The impact of dust disasters on the micro level is mainly reflected in the decline in the income of resident enterprises and the increase in expenditures of resident enterprises.Different levels of dust disasters mainly affect the industrial structure of Inner Mongolia by changing the proportion of the primary industry and the tertiary industry,and then changing the proportion of the secondary industry.(4)The addition of protective measures can effectively reduce the impact of dust disasters on the economy.However,the effects of protective measures under different levels of dust disasters are different.Among them,after the addition of protective measures under weaker levels of floating dust and blowing sand disasters The effect is not obvious,and the effect is obvious after adding protective measures under other severe dust disasters.