Research On Schedule Risk Forecast Of Construction Project Based On Fuzzy Bayesian Network

The modern construction industry is booming.With the increase in the complexity of construction projects,the number of construction projects that can be completed in time as planned is decreasing,and the number of delays in construction schedules is increasing.Schedule management is the key to engineering project management.It is one of the three major managements in project management.It has a very close relationship with cost management and also plays a very important role in the economic benefits of construction projects.Therefore,it is more and more important to do a good job in schedule risk management,prevent schedule risk and control schedule risk.This paper summarizes the domestic and foreign research based on historical documents,summarizes the factors that affect the construction period delay,and collects and identifies 32 risk factors for the construction schedule.Based on the definition of risk,a screening study was conducted on the 32 risk factors that were initially identified.Based on the improved TOPSISI method,25 representative influencing factors are selected.Then use the interpretive structure model analysis method to study the hierarchical relationship and logic among risk factors,and construct the Bayesian network structure.Calculate the probability in Bayesian network through expert fuzzy semantics and Noisy-or model,and finally establish a fuzzy Bayesian network model.The research results show that the 10 main risk factors that are more sensitive to the delay of the construction period are:untimely delivery of the site,construction errors and bad work s,insufficient capacity and experience of the owner unit,design changes,untimely supply of materials,and contractor capabilities And inexperienced,unqualified labor,design document errors,force majeure,weather effects,changes in government regulations.Through the interpr etation,verification and analysis of the model,an empirical study was carried out in combinat ion with a certain park project example,and the reasons for the schedule delay were analyzed and preventive measures were given to verify the feasibility of the method.This research helps to deepen the understanding of project managers on the interrelationship of construction period risk factors,and provides solutions for further dealing with construction period risks.Based on the Bayesian network modeling method of the interpretation structure model and the Noisy-or model,the model requires less probability data,and it reduces the workload of model construction and the amount of calculation of the model.The establishment of the model provides relevant managers Effective schedule management tool.