The Research On The Value Of The Loss Scientific And Creative Board Based On Schwartz Moon Model

In November 5,2018,President Xi Jinping attended the first China International Import fair and delivered keynote speech.He proposed that the Shanghai science and technology innovation board should be set up and the pilot registration system should be established.Science and technology innovation board is an effective supplement to China’s multi-level capital trial production,promoting the realization of national innovation drive.According to the Listing Rules of science and Technology Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange,IPO companies on science and technology innovation board are not necessarily profit-making enterprises.Enterprises are not profitmaking at the time of declaration,but they should have good profit prospects.At the same time,most enterprises on science and technology innovation board have the characteristics of light assets,knowledge intensive,high growth,high yield and high risk,which cannot be reflected by traditional methods And because of the high-tech leading,it is difficult to find suitable comparable enterprises in the market.Therefore,this paper introduces the Schwartz moon model under the idea of real options to evaluate the loss making enterprises in the science and technology innovation board,and provides experience for investors to evaluate the loss making enterprises in the science and technology innovation board.On July 20,2020,Cambrian,as the "first share of AI chip",was listed on the science and Technology Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange.Since 2017,artificial intelligence has been mentioned in the government report for three consecutive years."Policy continuous catalysis" is one of the development trends of artificial intelligence industry.The rapid popularization of all kinds of AI applications has driven the demand for AI chips.Cambrian was established in March 2016,in a period of rapid growth,and has not yet achieved profits.Based on the revenue forecast of 600-900 million yuan in2020,using the market sales rate,the valuation result of the sponsor is 19.2-34.2 billion yuan,with a large valuation range.As of December 31,2020,the market value of Cambrian is 58.8 billion yuan,which is quite different from the valuation result of the sponsor.It can be seen that the traditional valuation method does not reflect the potential value of enterprises in the science and technology innovation board.In this "dilemma",this paper introduces the Schwartz moon model under the idea of real options.This model takes into account the fluctuation of income,income growth rate and variable cost rate,and uses Monte Carlo to simulate the possible cash flow of enterprises in the future,In dealing with uncertainty,this method has more flexible management rights,helps to solve more complex pricing problems,and makes the valuation process and results more realistic.The Schwartz moon model is applied to evaluate the equity value on the base date of Cambrian evaluation,and the differences between the actual stock price and the evaluation results of the sponsor are analyzed to further judge the rationality of the evaluation results.This paper actively explores the value evaluation methods of loss making technology innovation board enterprises,enriches the traditional evaluation methods and enterprise value evaluation theory.In the practical operation,it can provide a certain degree of reference for the value evaluation of loss making technology innovation board enterprises,and help the enterprise management and investors to have a deeper understanding of such enterprise value,so as to help them make relevant decisions.