Research On COVID-19 Epidemic Situation Based On Warehouse Model

?World Health Statistics 2020?makes it clear that infectious diseases such as malaria,tuberculosis and HIV have long been among the world's biggest killers.At the same time,with the development of economic globalization,the exchange of materials,ideas,and people around the world is increasing exponentially.Under such a general background,if the emerging infectious diseases are not prevented and controlled in time,it is easy to cause global spread.Therefore,in the development process of a disease,the establishment of a dynamic model that can reflect the changing trend of the disease can help people predict the trend of the epidemic,explore the optimal control strategy,and also provide theoretical basis and quantitative basis for the formulation of epidemic prevention and control strategy,which has important practical significance.Based on the SEIR model,this paper has carried out a modeling analysis on the COVID-19 epidemic data,the specific content is as follows:Firstly,a stochastic SEIR model is established on the basis of determining the SEIR model,and the numerical simulation method of the stochastic SEIR model is given.The similarities and differences between the stochastic SEIR model and the definite SEIR model are analyzed,and the fitting of the COVID-19 epidemic data in Hubei Province is completed.Then,in view of the shortcomings of SEIR model,a SEI_qI_fHD model with time-varying parameters was established to complete the empirical analysis of the epidemic data of the five provinces with severe epidemic in China.Judging from the final results,this model can better reflect the epidemic process of COVID-19.At the same time,combined with the established model,the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures on the scale of the epidemic was quantified,indicating that the prevention and control measures adopted by our country have indeed effectively controlled the spread of the epidemic.Finally,due to the incomplete epidemic data in some countries,the warehouse model cannot be used for analysis,so the analysis method of COVID-19 transmission trend based on the LSTM is presented here.