Research Of The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate And International Oil Price Fluctuation On Stock Prices Of Domestic Airlines Based On VAR Model

With the exchange rate reform in China commences from 2005,during the period,‘811'exchange reform and China-US trade friction occurred at the end of 2018,the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations has attracted more and more attention from all sectors of the society.At the same time,as the world's largest developing country,the scale of oil consumption is enormous,and the fluctuation of international oil prices also affect the expansion of each industry.In all walks of life,the aviation industry is one of the industries sensitive to the external environment,and has a large contribution to the transportation industry.By 2018,the passengers in China's aviation market have reached 140.14 million,while the per capita occupancy ratio is only 0.35 times.It is probably 1/7 of the United States.From this point of view,even as the scale of high-speed rail expansion,with the continuous increment in per capita GDP,the scale of the aviation industry in China still has considerable growth in the future.However,the expansion of the aviation industry has been affected by fluctuations in exchange rates and international oil prices in a long run.The fluctuations in RMB exchange rate will bring exchange gain and loss in airlines,and fluctuations in international oil prices will affect operating costs in airlines.So,for domestic airlines,will fluctuations in RMB exchange rate and international oil prices have an impact on the company share price? If there has,how it works? And are these impacts different depending on the size of airlines? How do airlines deal with these impacts?When facing these doubts,this thesis will deeply study of RMB exchange rate and international oil price fluctuations for domestic airlines through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,covering the three major state-owned airlines(Air China,China Eastern and China Southern)and local airlines(Hainan airlines),also with two private airlines(Jun Yao and Spring airlines),the impact of the stock prices of these companies.This thesis will start with the influence path and effect through qualitative method,and then quantify RMB exchange rate and international oil price fluctuations by using ADF test,Vector autoregression(VAR),Cointegration test and impulse response function to research the impact for companies above.The results show that RMB exchange rate and international oil price fluctuations will have a negative impact on the stock prices of the three major state-owned airlines,while the impact of RMB exchange rate for local and private ones is not significant.Whereas oil price has a significant impact among all of them.Also,the impact of oil price volatility on all companies is much more pronounced.Finally,combined with the research results,it will provide some feasible opinions on the risks of RMB exchange rate and oil price fluctuations for different airlines accordingly.