Forecast Of International Trade Relations For Wide And Heavy Plates And Trade Suggestions For HBIS

The iron and steel industry is the basic industry of the national economy,which provides important raw materials for the economic development of our country,but also greatly meets the needs of other countries' iron and steel products.With the deepening development of economic globalization,every link of iron and steel products trade realizes the flow of iron and steel products through international trade.The trade of iron and steel products between countries has gradually formed a complex system of globalization.A better understanding of this system can better understand the international trade pattern of iron and steel products and its evolution.In addition,with the development of trade globalization,the uncertainty of the international trade relationship of steel products has become increasingly prominent.As the largest steel group in the country,HBIS plays a pivotal role in the international trade of Chinese steel products.Finding new trading partners in advance on the basis of the existing trading partner topology is very important for the development of Hegang Group's foreign trade.This paper first uses the international trade data of HBIS's current development plan for steel products-wide heavy plates data from 2009 to 2018 as the research object,and uses the complex network method to analyze the evolution of the international role of our country.Then,on the basis of the existing trade network,this paper uses the directed weighted link prediction method to predict the product trading country relationships,and finds out the partner countries that may trade with China in the future.The results show that: First,China,Belgium,Germany and France are relatively stable in terms of the trading partners number and trade volume.China and Belgium are relatively stable in terms of direct influence and are in the center of trade network.Second,in recent three years,China's wide heavy plate trade status and influence have shown a weak downward trend,and its indirect influence is insufficient.Third,in the past three years,the country links that have been predicted but have not yet successfully established still have the possibility of establishing trade relations.Countries participating in the international trade of wide heavy plates are more inclined to establish trade relations with their well-known trading partners.Fourth,it is predicted that Canada,the United Kingdom,Romania,Denmark,Finland,Hungary,Portugal,Guatemala and The Kingdom of Lesotho are the countries most likely to establish wide heavy plate trade relations with China in the next three years.Through this study,we can understand the evolution of wide heavy plate trade and identify the position and influence of China in trade.In addition,based on the predicted results,HBIS can prepare for the trade layout in advance,thereby promoting its expansion into the international market and enhancing the influence of the main product market.This study provides a decision reference for the development of HBIS and its international trade.