Research On The Heterogeneous Impact Of Crude Oil On The Chinese Stock Market Based On Machine Learning

After the industrial revolution,oil has gradually become the most important energy supply in the world,and its price fluctuations have varying degrees of impact on the economies and even the stock markets of all countries in the world.Several oil crises in history have caused drastic fluctuations in the global economy and stock markets.At the beginning of 2020,international crude oil plummeted again,and global stock markets fell sharply.The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock market cannot be ignored.In addition,China's oil consumption is currently increasing.Ranked second in the world,crude oil is increasingly dependent on foreign countries,and it is now close to 70%.The impact of international oil prices on China's stock market has attracted more and more people's attention.Studying this impact will help strengthen the stock market's predictive ability,identify the risks that oil price fluctuations bring to the stock market,help investors better manage financial risks,and help financial regulators identify financial systemic risks in a timely manner.Regarding the issue of how international oil prices affect China's stock market,many scholars and industry professionals have conducted research on this issue in the past,but there are few studies on the heterogeneous impact of oil prices on stock prices.However,it is very important to study the heterogeneous impact of oil prices,Which helps to discover the changes in the impact of oil prices on stock prices under different circumstances,and better respond to financial risks in different market environments.Moreover,the impact of oil prices on stock prices is likely to be heterogeneous,because the financial system is very complex and between markets,There may be a certain linkage relationship,and the impact of oil prices on stock prices may be affected by other factors,that is,the impact is heterogeneous.Based on the perspective of heterogeneity,this article studies the impact of oil prices on the domestic stock market under different exchange rates and interest rates,as well as the changes in the impact of oil prices on stock prices in different bull and bear stages of the stock market.Studying the heterogeneous impact of oil prices on stock prices is helpful to discover other variables and the complex relationship between the two markets.It supplements the one-way research on the two markets in the past literature,and broadens the perspective of studying the impact of oil prices on stock prices.In terms of research methods,most scholars in the past used traditional measurement models,and the stock market is a recognized complex system,affected by many factors.The time series of stock prices is characterized by nonlinearity and high noise,which makes it difficult to predict the stock market.,The forecasting effect of traditional measurement models is not ideal,and it cannot solve the forecasting difficulties caused by the nonlinearity and complexity of the stock market.With the development of machine learning,these problems can gradually be solved by machine learning.Machine learning has feature recognition capabilities and the ability to recognize complex nonlinear relationships that traditional models do not have.Therefore,this article chooses a variety of machine learning models to simulate After comparing the performance of the models,I chose a better model(LSTM)to study the heterogeneity impact of international crude oil prices on China's stock market,and found that it can identify complex non-linear relationships compared to linear models,which explains the heterogeneity impact of oil prices on stock prices.In the end,two conclusions were reached: First,in a bear market,the impact of crude oil prices on the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index was more significant than in the bull market,while the Shenzhen Component Index was more significant in the bull market;the second was interest rates,exchange rates,and the United States.When the stock index and other regulatory factors change,the impact of oil prices on stock prices will also change.Machine learning has identified the complex non-linear relationships among them and made better predictions.Finally,this article combines empirical conclusions and financial theory to elaborate on the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the Shanghai Stock Exchange,Shenzhen Component Index,and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index under different circumstances,helping investors better predict the stock market and identify the impact of oil price fluctuations.Financial risk management.