Present Situation Of Coal Mining Subsidence And Subsidence Prediction In The Next Ten Years Of Jining

Jining is one of the key coal bases in China.There are 53 production mines in the area and the annual financial revenue of about 14 billion yuan can be generated from coal mining.However,the mining subsidence in large area of the surface has a serious impact on the mining environment.In order to carry out the comprehensive management of mining subsidence area and plan the utilization plan of each mining subsidence area scientifically,we must fully grasp the mining subsidence stituation and the change of the mining subsidence area in the next ten years.Therefore,based on the collection and analysis of geological mining conditions,mining subsidence stituation and the actual data of surface moving observation stations in Jining,the statistical formula of the relationship between the model parameters and geological mining conditions of the prediction probability integration method is established.Combined with the coal mine development planning,the mining subsidence prediction in the next five and ten years is carried out.The main achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)The geological mining conditions,mining subsidence stituation and surface movement observation data of 53 coal mines in Jining are collected and sorted out,and the important data such as distribution and main characteristics of mining subsidence area in Jining are mastered.The data base is laid for scientific formulation of mining subsidence management plans.(2)Aiming at the optimization of multi peak and multi peak polymorphic function in parameter inversion of probability integration method,the convergence accuracy and efficiency of least square fitting inversion model parameters are improved by using the BAS.Based on the modular layered design idea,the "Subsidence Prediction and Parameter Determination(SPPD)" is developed.It provides software tools for scientific prediction of large-scale mining subsidence.(3)Based on the statistical analysis of 66 observation stations,the statistical relationship between the model parameters of probability integration method and geological mining conditions was established,which provides a scientific basis for the prediction of the subsidence range of coal mining in the future.(4)Combined with the medium and long-term mining planning of Jining coal mines,the new mining subsidence in 2019-2025 and 2019-2030 in Jining is predicted and analyzed,which provides the basis for scientific formulation of medium and longterm plan for the treatment of coal mining collapse in Jining.This paper contains 83 figures,57 tables and 94 references.